Canucks vs. IslandersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUBS Arena

Canucks

2–3Final

Islanders

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	0	2	0	2
NYI	2	0	1	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Vancouver Canucks spread +2.5 69¢

Why Fair Dog likes it: 6.0-goal sharp total and 65.7% devigged NYI moneyline imply normalized rates near NYI 3.47, VAN 2.53.

Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 2-4 on this game · −50% return

Game total over 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection 6.91 goals: 6.57 shrunk rate blend plus a 0.34-goal empty-net adjustment.
- Vancouver has allowed 35 goals in 7 games (5.00 per game); Islanders average 3.20 goals in 5.
- Islanders are the clear favorite at ProphetX -186, supporting a modest-margin late-pull script.
- Leevi Meriläinen and Ilya Sorokin are projected, not officially confirmed at this four-hour wake.
Game total over 6.0
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection 6.91 goals: 6.57 shrunk rate blend plus a 0.34-goal empty-net adjustment.
- Vancouver has allowed 35 goals in 7 games (5.00 per game); Islanders average 3.20 goals in 5.
- Islanders are the clear favorite at ProphetX -186, supporting a modest-margin late-pull script.
- Leevi Meriläinen and Ilya Sorokin are projected, not officially confirmed at this four-hour wake.
Vancouver Canucks spread +2.5Favorite
+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 6.0-goal sharp total and 65.7% devigged NYI moneyline imply normalized rates near NYI 3.47, VAN 2.53.
- Poisson/Skellam margin projection puts NYI win-by-3+ near 26%, making VAN +2.5 fair near 74%.
- FanDuel and DraftKings alternate +2.5 prices were -225 and -260; neither is cheaper than the Polymarket contract.
- Only five Islanders and seven Canucks games are in the current rate sample; early-season rates are noisy.
Vancouver Canucks-New York Islanders game total over 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The same matchup projection produces a 7.31-goal mean after the empty-net correction.
- Pinnacle posts a 6.0 total; the -207 favorite and projected 1.09-goal margin fit the close-game goalie-pull profile.
- This rung needs seven goals, so a six-goal finish loses despite an above-market mean.
Vancouver Canucks-New York Islanders game total over 5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- NYI/VAN matchup rates imply 4.10 and 3.01 goals; base total is 7.11.
- Adding the brief's 0.20 empty-net adjustment produces a 7.31-goal mean.
- Pinnacle's total is 6.0 and its favorite is -207, implying a roughly one-goal margin, not a blowout.
- Only five NYI and seven VAN current-season games make the rate estimate noisy.
Matthew Schaefer over 0.5 points
+57%Won
Taken at −175 on BetMGM
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 4 points in 5 current-season games (80% hit rate).
- Top-pair role is projected officially; recent ice time spans 20:34, 27:45 with power-play usage.
- Vancouver has allowed 5.0 goals and 30.9 shots per game through seven contests.
- Five-game sample is thin and includes an unsustainably high 80% point-game rate.

Show all 7 picks

Matthew Schaefer over 3.0 shots on goal
0%Push
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 19 shots on goal through five games: 3.8 per game, 26.7% above the 3.0 line.
- 15.62 five-on-five shot attempts per 60 and 25:27 average ice time lead the Islanders.
- Projected top-pair role and power-play quarterback usage support stable opportunity.
- Five-game sample is thin and shot conversion can regress quickly.

Questions

Who won Canucks vs. Islanders?

The Islanders won 3–2 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.