Sharks vs. Red WingsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLittle Caesars Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 5.5 total goals 59¢
Why Second String Shootout likes it: Confirmed Alex Nedeljkovic starts for San Jose; he has only 2 starts versus Yaroslav Askarov's 5.
Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −44% return
- Game over 7.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Novig
Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The same confirmed Nedeljkovic backup start adds roughly 0.30 goals to Pinnacle's fitted total mean.
- Poisson fit moves from Pinnacle λ≈6.50 to λ≈6.80, producing 37.2% fair probability at 7.5.
- A 7.5 threshold needs at least eight goals, so outcome variance is materially higher than the 5.5 rung.
- Game over 5.5 total goals+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Novig
Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Alex Nedeljkovic starts for San Jose; he has only 2 starts versus Yaroslav Askarov's 5.
- Detroit's recent 31.8 shots for plus San Jose's 26.4 shots allowed blend to 29.1, inside the top two-fifths.
- The shot sample covers only five recent games and the season is just seven games old.
- San Jose Sharks first-period total under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nested team-rate estimate is 1.65 first-period goals; Poisson under-1.5 probability is about 51%.
- Current-season scoring/allowing rates imply 5.79 expected game goals, below the 6.5 market midpoint.
- A 45¢ contract needs only 45% to break even; the estimated edge is modest, not decisive.
- Total goals over 7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 67% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle 6.5 total de-vigs to 47.6% over; fitted combined Poisson mean is 6.52 goals.
- The total ladder is monotonic from 3.5 through 9.5; 7.5 is one rung above the 6.5 main line.
- Neither starting goalie is confirmed; Tarasov and Nedeljkovic are only current projections, so this is held to 0.5u.
- Detroit Red Wings to win+67%Won
Taken at −150 on FanDuel
The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Detroit owns a 53.1% 5-on-5 Fenwick rate and 52.3% Corsi; San Jose sits at 45.3% and 45.7%.
- Daniil Tarasov is confirmed: .965 save percentage, .976 even-strength save percentage, and 100% quality starts.
- Both teams have two days’ rest and no back-to-back; schedule stress is neutral.
- Small seven-game sample: Detroit is 2-3-2, while San Jose is 4-3-0.
- San Jose Sharks two-way to win−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 3.46-point mismatch clears the brief's 3-point gate, with both related markets quoted on ProphetX.
- Starting goalies remain unconfirmed; the NHL preview lists multiple candidates for each team, so late news can erase the mismatch.
Questions
Who won Sharks vs. Red Wings?
The Red Wings won 4-3 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.