Stars vs. BlackhawksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUnited Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDallas Stars to win −213
Why The Stanley Cup likes it: Dallas owns the stronger baseline: 2.29 GF/game and 1.86 GA/game versus Chicago's 2.63 and 4.00.
The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-0 on this game · +71% return
- Dallas Stars to win+47%Won
Taken at −213 on williamhill_us
5 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Backup Net +3Why 5 models like it
The Stanley Cup- Dallas owns the stronger baseline: 2.29 GF/game and 1.86 GA/game versus Chicago's 2.63 and 4.00.
- Five-on-five possession favors Dallas: 49.9% SAT and 50.1% USAT versus Chicago's 42.4% and 41.1%.
- Dallas is missing Matt Duchene and David Perron; Chicago is without Bowen Byram and Andrew Mangiapane.
Backup Net- Last 10 starts: Oettinger .922 (236/256 saves); Knight .865 (231/267).
- Hard-shrunk toward 2025-26 baselines (.899 vs .902), Oettinger still grades materially better.
- Current-season sample is tiny; cross-season shrink makes the projection model-sensitive.
NHL Ice Edge- Moneypuck’s current goalie table lists Oettinger at +1.319 GSAX/60 versus Knight at -0.067.
- Dallas leads Chicago by 9.0 percentage points in 5v5 Corsi share, the xG fallback, over seven games each.
- The 2026-27 sample is only seven to eight games, so early-season rates are volatile.
high-confidence main markets- Jake Oettinger is confirmed and owns a .944 save percentage with 4 quality starts in 5 appearances.
- Dallas allows 1.86 goals per game and has a .499 5v5 Corsi rate; Chicago allows 4.00 and sits at .410.
- Dallas has lost two regulation games and one shootout in seven; the early-season sample is small.
- Dallas Stars −1.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Dallas cover probability 49%; fair contract price is 51c.
- Jake Oettinger is confirmed; his live 2026-27 line is .944 save percentage, 1.20 GAA, and 4 quality starts in 5.
- Spencer Knight is confirmed for Chicago; his line is .890 save percentage, 3.52 GAA, and 2 quality starts in 6.
- Chicago has scored 21 goals in 8 games; that offense can turn a favorite win into a one-goal result.
- Under 6.5 total goals+74%Won
Taken at −135 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring/allowance blend projects roughly 5.2 total goals.
- Recent five-game scoring blend points to approximately 5.5 goals.
- Dallas has allowed 1.71 goals per game and carries a .9259 team save rate.
- Chicago has allowed 3.4 goals per game across its last five, creating defensive volatility.
- First-period total under 1.5 goals+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current first-period rates imply 1.50 goals before calibration: DAL 0.57 GF/0.57 GA; CHI 0.57 GF/1.29 GA.
- Full-game ladder centers near 6.0, 6.1 goals; scaling the matchup rate gives a first-period mean about 1.67, 1.70.
- The rung is clean: both sides quoted, one-cent spread, monotone neighboring first-period rungs; Knight is making his fourth straight start.
- The first-period sample is only seven usable games per team; one Chicago period split is missing.
- Patrick Kane under 0.5 points+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kane has 2 five-on-five points through 8 games, only 0.25 per game before special teams.
- Dallas is allowing just 1.71 goals and 23.1 shots against per game in the current matchup snapshot.
- Kane is active on Chicago's projected top line, but Dallas' defensive environment supports the under.
- The NHL rate is five-on-five only; Kane's power-play role can create a point outside that sample.
Questions
Who won Stars vs. Blackhawks?
The Stars won 4–0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.