Islanders vs. Maple LeafsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Arena

Islanders

4–1Final

Maple Leafs

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	1	1	2	4
TOR	0	0	1	1

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Islanders to win +116

Why The Stanley Cup likes it: Model 53% vs 44.3% sharp-market fair probability; +116 is above the model's roughly +89 fair price.

The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 2-3 on this game · −27% return

Game overtimeLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle moneyline -133/+120 devigs to Toronto 55.7% / Islanders 44.3%, indicating a competitive matchup.
- Pinnacle Toronto -1.5 +188 implies roughly 33.6% for a two-goal home win; the modest spread supports tie mass.
- Pinnacle total 6: Over -113 / Under +101, about 51.6% over; the relatively low total supports overtime.
- The edge is only 4.5 points; this is an early-season estimate heavily shrunk toward last season.
William Nylander over 2.5 shots on goal
−100%Lost
Taken at −146 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 3.8 SOG/game over his last five; cleared 2.5 in 4 of 5.
- 27 SOG in 8 games this season (3.38/game), with 21+ minutes in four of his last five.
- Official NHL projection places Nylander on Toronto's top line with Matthews; the active sportsbook board lists him for this game.
- Eight-game season sample is still thin; season over rate is only 4 of 8.
Matthew Schaefer under 0.5 assists
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 0 assists in each of Schaefer's last four games, a clear recent-form miss against the 0.5 line.
- Toronto's current penalty kill is 95.8%, limiting assist opportunities on Islanders power plays.
- Schaefer is projected active on the Islanders' top defensive pair; PrizePicks also lists him for this game.
- Schaefer has 4 five-on-five assists in 7 games, so the recent four-game drought may regress.
New York Islanders to win
+116%Won
Taken at +116 on FanDuel
The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model 53% vs 44.3% sharp-market fair probability; +116 is above the model's roughly +89 fair price.
- Islanders allow 2.43 goals/game versus Toronto's 3.50 through 7/8 games.
- Combined 5-on-5 possession favors New York: Corsi .4955/.4747 and Fenwick .4852/.4685.
- Toronto has home ice, a 3.50 goals/game attack, and a major special-teams edge: 29.6% power play versus New York's 17.4%.
New York Islanders puck line +1.5Favorite
+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 71.0% fair probability, about -245, after shrinking the 2026 away +1.5 rate toward 2025's 70.3% base.
- Toronto is only 0.0 goal differential through 8 games; New York is +0.43 through 7, not a strongest-favourite bucket.
- Ilya Sorokin is expected and has a .934 save percentage with 4 quality starts in 5; Toronto's expected Sergei Bobrovsky is at .896 with 2 in 5.
- Both goalies are expected rather than confirmed three hours before puck drop; a late change materially affects the margin tail.

Questions

Who won Islanders vs. Maple Leafs?

The Islanders won 4–1 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.