Lightning vs. RangersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMadison Square Garden
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 6.5 56¢
Why Cohort Check likes it: Rangers average 3.29 GF and 1.86 GA; Lightning average 3.20 GF and 2.40 GA.
Cohort CheckDown 9% this season · 56 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-8 on this game · −35% return
- Tampa Bay Lightning −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSpare Crease Spread, Overtime TaxWhy 2 models like it
Spare Crease Spread- 49% projected cover probability; 37c market price implies 37%, with fair value near 49c.
- Tampa Bay is -162 on the live moneyline, clearing the -140 favorite gate.
- Garand has started well: .945 save percentage and 2 quality starts in 3 games this season.
Overtime Tax- Polymarket US moneyline prices Tampa Bay at 60c, making the 37c -1.5 rung materially cheaper than the implied favorite profile.
- The full-game ladder is clean and monotone: Tampa -1.5 at 37c, -2.5 at 25c, and -3.5 at 10c; the paired +1.5 side is quoted at 64c.
- A 43% 2+ win estimate is a league-base-rate anchor, not a game-specific margin model; variance remains substantial.
- Game total over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team goal rates total 6.49: Tampa Bay 3.20 and New York 3.29 through Oct. 13.
- Adding the desk's 0.20 empty-net correction gives a 6.69-goal mean before positive dependence.
- Pinnacle is Tampa Bay -156 and total 6.0, meeting the close-favorite and sharp-total gates.
- The 5.5 over loses at five goals or fewer despite the elevated mean.
- Game over 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Shrunk shot/finish model projects 6.4 goals before empty-net adjustment.
- Adding the 0.21-goal empty-net term gives a roughly 6.6-goal mean.
- Live Pinnacle reference is 6.0 (-109 over), meeting the sharp-total gate.
- Vasilevskiy and Garand are projected starters, not both independently confirmed at the time of review.
- Game total under 6.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rangers average 3.29 GF and 1.86 GA; Lightning average 3.20 GF and 2.40 GA.
- Confirmed starters are Andrei Vasilevskiy (.892 SV%) and Dylan Garand (.945 SV%).
- Pinnacle's sharp reference is 6 goals, with a 50.8% devigged Over probability.
- Vasilevskiy's .892 early-season save rate leaves room for a Rangers scoring spike.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The same 6.69-goal mean includes the desk's 0.20 empty-net correction.
- Tampa Bay is a -156 Pinnacle favorite, not a blowout profile, while Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0.
- Live alternate prices show DraftKings +110 and FanDuel +114 on over 6.5, both worse than the 45¢ exchange cost.
- The 6.5 over needs seven or more goals, so one-goal outcomes create substantial variance.
- First-period total under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team-rate blend projects about 5.37 full-game goals versus the roughly 6-goal market ladder.
- Nesting the 1.76 first-period baseline to that rate gives a first-period mean near 1.53.
- That mean implies roughly 55% for 0 or 1 first-period goals; the contract costs 46¢.
- Rangers are without Igor Shesterkin and Joonas Korpisalo; Dylan Garand makes a consecutive start.
Show all 9 picks
- Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −175 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hagel has 26 shots in 5 games, averaging 5.2 per game.
- He cleared 2.5 shots in all five completed games: 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6.
- Stable recent workload is roughly 22 minutes per game, with Tampa averaging 30.4 shots per game.
- New York has allowed only 23.86 shots per game through seven contests.
- Brandon Hagel over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −175 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 8 points in 5 games; Hagel recorded a point in 4 of his last 5.
- Last-five role is stable at roughly 22 minutes per game, with regular power-play time.
- NHL's current game preview projects Hagel in Tampa Bay's top six; no injury designation is listed.
- Rangers allow only 1.86 goals per game through seven contests.
- New York Rangers −1.5+376%Won
Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson model estimates Rangers winning by 2+ at roughly 33%, versus a 21¢ Polymarket US cost.
- Derived alternate rung clears the brief's +5% threshold by about 12 percentage points.
- Rangers are 5-2 with a +10 goal differential; Tampa is 4-1 but has allowed 2.4 goals per game.
- Garand's start is not officially confirmed at this morning wake, creating goalie uncertainty.
Questions
Who won Lightning vs. Rangers?
The Rangers won 4-1 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.