Maple Leafs vs. MammothFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDelta Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| UTAH | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUtah Mammoth to win 60¢
Why Fade the Goalie likes it: Anthony Stolarz is Toronto's confirmed backup starter; he posted .8927 SV% across 25 starts last season and .9038 this season.
Fade the GoalieDown 1% this season · 17 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −19% return
- Nick Schmaltz over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.0 SOG per game across six starts, 1.5 above the 2.5 line.
- 18.7 average minutes with 4.5 average power-play minutes; current forward role is active.
- Toronto allows 30.17 SOG/game, sixth-highest mark among 32 teams in the current season.
- Only six games of current-season data; Schmaltz went under this line once.
- Utah Mammoth to win+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Fade the GoalieDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Anthony Stolarz is Toronto's confirmed backup starter; he posted .8927 SV% across 25 starts last season and .9038 this season.
- Current ProphetX is softer than the sharp reference: Utah -148 versus Pinnacle -155; opening ProphetX was -152, so the goalie news has not driven a Utah repricing.
- Stolarz's current .9038 SV% is only 52 shots and better than last season's mark; the backup penalty may be overstated.
- Auston Matthews under 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Novig
Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 62.0% model fair: 60% bucket base plus 2 points for Toronto's road status.
- Matthews averaged 3.5 shots over his last 10 games, qualifying without exceeding the 4.0 cutoff.
- Pinnacle's same-line devigged under fair is 54.6%; Novig is only 0.9 points away, not a stale-price warning.
- Toronto's power-play deployment was not finalized in the preview and could increase shot opportunities.
- Toronto Maple Leafs spread +2.5+35%Won
Taken at 74¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Goal-difference fit anchored to Utah's 59.8% sharp moneyline and 6.5 total gives Utah 36% for a 2+ win and 22% for a 3+ win.
- No US sportsbook is cheaper on Toronto +2.5: FanDuel is -290 (about 74.4¢) and DraftKings -325 (about 76.5¢).
- Early-season sample is only six games per team, so the rate-based margin distribution is noisy.
- Anthony Stolarz under 29.5 saves+83%Won
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 23.5 average saves in his two 2026 starts; both finished under 29.5.
- 18 of 25 starts in the prior season stayed under 29.5 saves (72%).
- Toronto's confirmed starter has a verified DK price of -120; own 65% estimate is 10.5 points above break-even.
- A high-danger shooting night, overtime, or extended defensive-zone time creates wider-than-normal variance.
- Darren Raddysh under 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raddysh has 1 point in 6 games this season (0.167 per game), 67% below the 0.5 projection.
- NHL.com’s current 5-on-5 rate is only 0.604 points per 60 minutes.
- Utah enters allowing 2.50 goals and 22.5 shots against per game, a favorable defensive environment for an under.
- Toronto averages 3.33 goals per game, so one power-play assist can beat a low individual projection.
Questions
Who won Maple Leafs vs. Mammoth?
The Mammoth won 5–4 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.