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Oilers vs. KingsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCrypto.com Arena
Oilers
4–1Final
Kings
Score by period
Team123T
EDM3014
LAK0101

Top model pick, graded

Won

Connor McDavid over 1.5 points −137

Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: McDavid has 13 points in five games (2.6 per game) and cleared 1.5 in all five.

Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 631 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-5 on this game · +12% return

  1. Edmonton Oilers to win3 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsFade the Goalie, Cohort Check +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Fade the Goalie
    • Devon Levi was officially confirmed; three 2026-27 starts produced .863 save percentage on 73 shots.
    • Current goalie data lists Levi as the non-primary option behind Tristan Jarry; Andersen is on injured reserve.
    • Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are out, reducing Edmonton's offensive margin.
    Cohort Check
    • Edmonton has scored 25 goals in five games; Los Angeles has allowed 17 in four.
    • Confirmed starters are Edmonton's Devon Levi and Los Angeles' Darcy Kuemper; both early-season save rates are below .870.
    • The team samples are only five Edmonton games and four Los Angeles games.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Edmonton is 4-0-1 with 5.0 goals per game; Los Angeles is 0-2-2 with 2.5.
    • Oilers lead the early 5v5 possession matchup, 51.9% Corsi to 49.0%.
    • Edmonton is finishing a road trip while Los Angeles has home ice; both last played October 10.
  2. Connor McDavid over 1.5 pointsHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McDavid has 13 points in five games (2.6 per game) and cleared 1.5 in all five.
    • Los Angeles is 0-4 recently, while Darcy Kuemper has allowed 12 goals on 91 shots in three starts (.868 save rate).
    • Edmonton's power play is 22.2%; the matchup's defensive and goaltending form supports multi-point upside.
    • Five games is a small sample, and two-point props remain high variance.
  3. Game over 5.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edmonton is the clear favorite at Pinnacle (-121 moneyline; -130 consensus), creating the one-goal-lead empty-net setup.
    • Hard-shrunk shot rates are 28.9 Edmonton and 28.1 Los Angeles per game, using current form and 2025-26 data.
    • Hard-shrunk shooting rates are 13.4% Edmonton and 9.4% Los Angeles; Poisson-style over-5.5 estimate is 66%.
    • The season sample is only five Edmonton games and four Los Angeles games; early finishing can regress sharply.
  4. Los Angeles Kings to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Devon Levi and Darcy Kuemper are both confirmed starters; both teams have three days' rest, with no back-to-back penalty.
    • Edmonton's current-season sample is only five games, and Hyman's own current sample is one game; role and rate estimates are necessarily shrunk.
  5. Goal in first 10 minutes
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both confirmed goalies are shaky by current-season save rate: Devon Levi .863 and Darcy Kuemper .865.
    • Edmonton averages 26.4 shots and Los Angeles 28.25; Edmonton's 31.47-foot average shot distance is the better quality profile.
    • Levi and Kuemper each posted .93+ save percentages in their most recent starts, so the season rates may overstate current weakness.
  6. Edmonton Oilers −1.5Long shot
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 43% base rate for a strongest-side NHL favorite to win by 2+; this matchup clears the 1.2-goal form-gap condition.
    • Oilers’ recent scoring-margin form is +1.6 versus Kings -1.8, a 3.4-goal trailing gap.
    • De-vigged moneyline is about 54.5% Edmonton; allowing roughly 11.5 points for the one-goal/OT bucket implies about 43% for -1.5.
    • Edmonton is on the road and missing Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; early-season five-game form is thin.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EDM and LAK combine for 32 goals in eight current-season team-games (4.00 per team-game), before the empty-net uplift.
    • Pinnacle’s sharp full-game total is 6.0, satisfying the 6.0-or-lower gate; Oilers are only -121, not a -300 blowout favorite.
    • Confirmed starters Levi and Kuemper have allowed 3.35 and 4.03 goals per game in this young season.
    • Six or fewer goals loses; the 6.5 rung is materially more variance-sensitive than 5.5.
  2. Game total over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EDM has scored 22 goals in 4 games (5.50/game); LAK has scored 10 (2.50/game).
    • Team-rate baseline is 8.0 goals; adding the brief’s 0.2 empty-net correction gives an 8.2 mean.
    • Pinnacle has the favorite at Edmonton -121 and the total at 6.0; the close favorite profile supports late empty-net attempts.
    • Four games is a very noisy early-season scoring sample; regression could be substantial.
  3. First-period total under 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EDM and LAK first-period rates blend to about 1.63 expected goals: EDM 1.40 GF/0.60 GA, LAK 0.75 GF/0.50 GA.
    • That mean gives roughly 51.7% for 0-1 first-period goals, versus a 45¢ Polymarket US under contract.
    • The full-game ladder centers near 6.5-7 goals; nesting leaves this matchup's first-period estimate below the 1.76 league baseline.
    • The rate sample is only five Edmonton games and four Los Angeles games.
  4. Connor McDavid over 0.5 assistsFavorite
    +53%Won

    Taken at −190 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • -190 is a live DraftKings quote captured at 6:20 PM PDT; the player-assists market is active.
    • McDavid has recorded 1, 2, 1, 4, and 2 assists in his five games this season: 5-for-5 over 0.5.
    • He is projected to start on Edmonton's top line with Leon Draisaitl and logged about 24 minutes per game over that span.
    • Five games is a small early-season sample, and assist conversion is inherently volatile.

Questions

Who won Oilers vs. Kings?

The Oilers won 4-1 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.

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