Flames vs. DucksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHonda Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCalgary Flames puck line +2.5 72¢
Why Fair Dog likes it: Skellam margin fit estimates Anaheim win-by-3+ at 23%, anchored to the 6.0 sharp total and 61.2% moneyline probability.
Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-4 on this game · −10% return
- Anaheim Ducks to win−100%Lost
Taken at −166 on FanDuel
2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Morning PuckWhy 2 models like it
high-confidence main markets- Anaheim is 4-1 with +1.0 average margin; Calgary is 0-5 at -3.8.
- Calgary scores 1.6 goals per game and allows 5.4; Anaheim scores 3.6 and allows 2.6.
- Anaheim is without Troy Terry and Cutter Gauthier, reducing top-six scoring depth.
Morning Puck- 50% early-season shrink Poisson model: Anaheim about 68% before uncertainty haircut.
- Calgary is 0-5 with a -3.8 goal margin over its last five; Anaheim is 4-1 at +1.0.
- Starters remain unconfirmed; Cooley is a backup projection, so this is deliberately half-sized.
- Calgary Flames puck line +2.5+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Skellam margin fit estimates Anaheim win-by-3+ at 23%, anchored to the 6.0 sharp total and 61.2% moneyline probability.
- Current rates are extreme but short-sample; calibration avoids overreacting to Anaheim's 4-1 and Calgary's 0-5 starts.
- Projected, not confirmed, goalies are Dostal/Husso for Anaheim and Wolf/Cooley for Calgary; a late change matters.
- Anaheim Ducks −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ducks moneyline is 62¢; the -1.5 contract costs only 41¢.
- Using the 21, 25% past-regulation rate and 38, 43% one-goal distribution, Ducks 2+ is roughly 50%.
- The 9-point gap clears the brief’s 4-point puck-line-versus-moneyline threshold.
- The exact Ducks one-goal win share is estimated, not directly observed in this five-game sample.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The same GF/GA blend plus empty-net correction produces a 6.8-goal mean for this matchup.
- Pinnacle's sharp reference total is 6.0, with Anaheim -168 and a -1.5 puck line priced +139, a favorite profile compatible with close-game empty-net risk.
- A 6.8 mean leaves only a modest probability cushion above the 6.5 rung; variance dominates this higher threshold.
- Game total over 5.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- GF/GA blend projects ANA 4.5 goals and CGY 2.1, a 6.6-goal baseline.
- Adding the desk's 0.2 empty-net adjustment gives a 6.8-goal mean; small positive correlation puts P(6+) near 68%.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0, and Anaheim is -168, shorter than -150 without the brief's -300 blowout screen.
- The five-game goal-rate sample is extremely noisy, especially Calgary's 1.6 GF and 5.4 GA rates.
- Lukas Dostal over 23.5 saves+100%Won
Taken at +100 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Calgary averages 28.0 shots per game and produced 29, 29, 33, 24, 25 in its last five.
- Dostal is confirmed to start; his 2026 season profile shows 25.5 shots against per 60 and an .884 save percentage.
- At 28 projected shots and his season save rate, the save projection is about 24.7, roughly 1.2 above the line.
- Dostal has exceeded 23.5 saves in only two of his four recorded starts, a small and volatile sample.
Show all 8 picks
- Dustin Wolf under 27.5 total saves+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Wolf averages 23.7 saves across three 2026-27 starts, 13.8% below the 27.5 line.
- Wolf is confirmed as Calgary's starter and is a listed active participant for this game.
- Wolf has stayed under his saves prop in two of three graded 2026-27 lines.
- Three starts is a thin sample, and Wolf's .816 save percentage can create volatile save totals.
- First-period total over 0.5 goals+23%Won
Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current five-game period rates imply a 2.1-goal first-period matchup mean: ANA 1.4 GF/0.4 GA, CGY 0.6 GF/1.8 GA.
- The full-game ladder centers near 6.2 goals; nesting the matchup period share gives λ₁≈1.97.
- Polymarket US has both sides quoted at 81¢/20¢ with a clean, monotone first-period ladder.
- The period-rate sample is only five regular-season games per team and may regress sharply.
Questions
Who won Flames vs. Ducks?
The Flames won 4–2 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.