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Wild vs. JetsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCanada Life Centre
Wild
2–5Final
Jets
Score by period
Team123T
MIN2002
WPG2125

Top model pick, graded

Won

Winnipeg Jets +1.5 −265

Why high-confidence main markets likes it: Wild played Monday, Oct. 12, then travel for this road back-to-back; Winnipeg has rested since Oct. 9.

high-confidence main marketsDown 2% this season · 361 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-6 on this game · −61% return

  1. Minnesota Wild to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsScratch Shift, Scratch Tape
    Why 2 models like it
    Scratch Shift
    • Hellebuyck logged 57 games and 204,087 seconds last season (.8953 save percentage); the replacement context is materially different from the expected starter.
    • ProphetX normalized Wild probability moved only about 0.4 percentage points, from roughly 50.7% at opening to 51.1% now; my goalie-change read is about 3.5 points.
    • The suspension and goalie situation may have been known before the opening capture; the timing edge could be overstated.
    Scratch Tape
    • Josh Morrissey is officially listed injured/out by the Jets' NHL.com game preview after missing morning skate.
    • Morrissey averaged 23:35 in his three pre-injury 2026 games, about 7.9% of Winnipeg's five-skater minutes.
    • The official preview has no exact confirmation timestamp and labels Morrissey day-to-day, although it lists him injured for this game.
  2. Game goes to overtimeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ladder synthesis is about 27%: near-pick'em Pinnacle moneyline (-102/-108), modest puckline (WPG -1.5 +225 / MIN +1.5 -278), and low total (DK 6.5 over +110 / under -130).
    • Base-rate discipline: the estimate is anchored to 20.7% last season, with the even matchup and low total supplying the lift rather than extrapolating the early 24.8% rate.
    • The 27% estimate uses a rough tie-mass mapping because no direct regulation three-way sportsbook quote is posted.
  3. Winnipeg Jets +1.5Favorite
    +38%Won

    Taken at −265 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wild played Monday, Oct. 12, then travel for this road back-to-back; Winnipeg has rested since Oct. 9.
    • Confirmed starters: Stuart Skinner (.920 save rate, 2.62 GAA) versus Calvin Pickard making his Wild debut.
    • Winnipeg's home puckline protects against a one-goal loss; the Jets are 3-1-1 while rested and Wild have four key forwards/defender absences.
    • Minnesota's early 4-1-1 record and 3.17 goals per game are stronger than Winnipeg's 2.60.
  4. First-period total under 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model first-period mean is about 1.6 goals after nesting the roughly 6.0-game-total ladder with both teams' period rates.
    • Minnesota first-period goals for/against: 7/3 in six games; Winnipeg: 3/3 in five.
    • Both 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 first-period rungs are quoted and monotone; the 1.5 pair totals 1.01.
    • Only 11 combined games of first-period data; one early special-teams goal can overwhelm the sample.
  5. Mark Scheifele over 0.5 assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Scheifele has 3 five-on-five assists through 5 games: 0.60 per game versus the 0.5 line.
    • He is projected on Winnipeg's top line with Kyle Connor and Cole Perfetti.
    • Minnesota is missing top-four defenseman Brock Faber, while Calvin Pickard is expected to start in goal.
    • The five-on-five sample is only five games and does not provide a complete all-situations assist game log.
  6. Minnesota Wild first-period spread −0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Square FrameUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 36¢ Wild -0.5 plus 37¢ Jets -0.5 implies a 27% first-period tie rate.
    • 27% is 7.1 points below the 34.1% historical tie baseline, clearing the six-point trigger.
    • The 16¢ first-period Under 0.5 quote keeps implied ties above the roughly 17% zero-goal cross-check.
    • The 34.1% tie rate is league-wide, not matchup-specific; this is an early-season sample.
Show all 7 picks
  1. MIN-WPG under 6.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's sharp full-game total is 6.0; the derived 6.5 rung is only 0.1 goals above the model.
    • Confirmed starters are Stuart Skinner (.920 this season) and Calvin Pickard; the goalie-adjusted projection remains near 6.1.
    • Polymarket US under costs 54¢, slightly below BetMGM's best captured under-6.5 price of -120.
    • Pickard is a backup making his Minnesota debut after the Wild played Monday; this is intentionally half-sized.

Questions

Who won Wild vs. Jets?

The Jets won 5-2 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.

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