Bruins vs. SharksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSAP Center at San Jose
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| SJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 5.5 total goals 58¢
Why Empty Net Ledger likes it: Boston is the -123 sharp-book favorite, with a projected 0.6-goal margin, the preferred empty-net setup.
Empty Net LedgerUp 16% return this season · 27 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-6 on this game · −15% return
- Boston Bruins to win+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsFade the Goalie, high-confidence main marketsWhy 2 models like it
Fade the Goalie- confirmed Yaroslav Askarov owns a .860 save percentage through four 2026-27 starts, with zero quality starts and 107 shots faced.
- His last 10 starts span 292 shots at a .860 save percentage; last season was .884 over 47 starts, still poor after shrinkage.
- Boston's 14th-ranked shot-attempt share is only barely top-half and comes from a tiny six-game sample.
high-confidence main markets- Swayman confirmed: .9323 save percentage and 4 quality starts in 5 starts.
- Askarov confirmed: .8598 save percentage and 0 quality starts in 4 starts.
- Both teams have only five or six regular-season games, making goalie and team rates noisy.
- Game over 5.5 total goals+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Boston is the -123 sharp-book favorite, with a projected 0.6-goal margin, the preferred empty-net setup.
- Over 5.5 loses at five or fewer goals; the 0.21 empty-net term occurs only in roughly 34% of games.
- Game total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 5.75 goals from Boston 3.33 GF/2.17 GA and San Jose 2.60 GF/3.40 GA.
- Confirmed starters Swayman (.932 save percentage) and Askarov (.860) support a 60% under estimate.
- Pinnacle's sharp board is centered on 6 goals, with over -118 and under +105.
- The goal-rate sample is only five Boston games and six San Jose games, so early-season variance is substantial.
- Boston Bruins −1.5+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Boston's recent +0.8 goal differential versus San Jose's -0.8 creates a 1.6-goal form gap, qualifying the strongest-side screen.
- The clean full-game pair is Bruins -1.5 at 32¢ versus Sharks +1.5 at 69¢; both sides are quoted and nearly sum to 1.
- Moneyline is also clean around Boston 55¢ / San Jose 46¢, while this desk isolates overtime tax through the puck line.
- The claim requires a Boston regulation win by 2+; any overtime or one-goal Boston win loses it.
- Will Smith shots on goal under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at −154 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 of Smith's last 5 games stayed under 2.5 shots; he averaged 1.4 SOG in that span.
- His recent TOI stayed usable at 15:33, 20:11, without a low-minute disappearance.
- Boston's confirmed starter Jeremy Swayman and San Jose's confirmed Yaroslav Askarov reduce goalie-status uncertainty.
- Small five-game sample; one three-shot outing is the only recent over.
- First-period total under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- BOS first-period rates: 1.17 goals for and 0.50 against; SJS: 0.20 for and 0.80 against.
- Matchup first-period mean is 1.33 before nesting; scaling the period rates to the 6.5 game-total market gives approximately 1.5 goals.
- Poisson estimate puts 0-1 first-period goals near 55%, versus a 47c Polymarket US under price.
- The period-rate sample is only six Boston and five San Jose games, so the estimate is noisy.
Show all 9 picks
- Game under 6.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson model after first-month league shrink projects 5.9, 6.0 goals; under 6.5 wins about 61%.
- Boston has 20 GF and 13 GA in six games; San Jose has 13 GF and 17 GA in five, with rates shrunk toward 3.062 league goals per team-game.
- Confirmed goalies Jeremy Swayman (.932 SV%, 1.79 GAA) and Yaroslav Askarov (.860 SV%, 3.71 GAA) produce a goalie-adjusted model total near 5.9.
- Askarov's .860 save percentage creates substantial blow-up risk; six or more goals loses.
- Jeremy Swayman under 25.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharks average 23.4 shots on goal per game, below the 25.5-save threshold before goals are removed.
- Sharks average 2.6 goals per game, implying roughly 20.8 Swayman saves from their current shot and scoring rates.
- The under is an estimated 18% below-line projection, clearing the brief's 10% value target.
- Five-game team and goalie samples are thin early in the season.
- Yaroslav Askarov over 24.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Bruins vs. Sharks?
The Bruins won 6–3 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.