Avalanche vs. StarsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAmerican Airlines Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonColorado Avalanche moneyline including overtime/shootout 48¢
Why Regulation Gap likes it: Recent form is not contradictory: Colorado is 3-2 with a +1.8 average margin over its last five versus Dallas 2-3 and +0.6. Sharp reference is nearby at Colorado +105, not the edge.
Regulation GapDown 19% this season · 53 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −18% return
- Dallas Stars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsScratch Shift, Morning PuckWhy 2 models like it
Scratch Shift- NHL.com lists Cale Makar scratched; the live goalie report confirms Jake Oettinger for Dallas and Casey DeSmith for Colorado.
- Makar's 2026 share: 3 of Colorado's 26 goals, 13 of 162 shots, and 21:30 average ice time; his 2025 role was 24:55 per game.
- Colorado's replacement group can absorb some minutes, and Makar's current five-game production is a tiny sample.
Morning Puck- Poisson estimate makes Dallas roughly 57% to win after home ice, goalie quality, and Colorado's Cale Makar scratch.
- Jake Oettinger: .963 save percentage and 0.74 GAA through four starts; Mackenzie Blackwood: .867 and 3.30 GAA.
- Blackwood and Oettinger are projected, not officially confirmed at this morning wake.
- Colorado Avalanche moneyline including overtime/shootout+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent form is not contradictory: Colorado is 3-2 with a +1.8 average margin over its last five versus Dallas 2-3 and +0.6. Sharp reference is nearby at Colorado +105, not the edge.
- The four-game recent matchup sample has three games reaching overtime/shootout; the past-regulation rate is noisy even when shrunk toward the 22% league baseline.
- Mikko Rantanen over 0.5 assists−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rantanen has 4 assists in 5 games (0.80 per game), a 60% mean above the 0.5 line.
- Official NHL preview lists 6 points, including 4 assists, through five games.
- Cale Makar is scratched for Colorado, weakening the opponent's top defensive unit and helping Dallas offensive opportunity.
- Five-game sample is thin; four assists can regress sharply.
- First-period total under 1.5 goals+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw first-period matchup rate is 1.60: COL 1.4 goals for plus DAL 0.6 against, DAL 0.6 for plus COL 0.6 against.
- The full-game ladder implies roughly a 6.0-goal mean; nesting that with the teams' 6.2 raw matchup rate gives a first-period mean near 1.55.
- Both sides of the 1.5 rung are quoted, with the first-period ladder monotone; Cale Makar is confirmed out, a modest offensive drag for Colorado.
- The team-rate sample is only five games, so the 1.55 estimate is noisy and model-dependent.
Questions
Who won Avalanche vs. Stars?
The Avalanche won 3–2 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.