Blues vs. SenatorsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCanadian Tire Centre
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTim Stützle over 0.5 assists −137
Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: 4 assists in his last 5 games; over this line in 4 of 5.
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 628 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +46% return
- Tim Stützle over 0.5 assists+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4 assists in his last 5 games; over this line in 4 of 5.
- Recent form is 0.8 assists per game versus a 0.5 line, a 60% rate divergence.
- Ottawa is 5-1-0 and just scored four goals; Stützle had a goal and assist Monday.
- Five-game sample is thin; one quiet night loses the prop.
- Joel Hofer under 25.5 saves+98%Won
Taken at −102 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hofer has recorded 17, 24, and 20 saves in his three starts this season.
- Ottawa averages 24.0 shots per game through six contests; its recent range is 20, 29.
- The official NHL preview lists Hofer in St. Louis's projected goalie group, and FanDuel actively prices his saves prop.
- Only three starts provide a thin goalie-specific sample.
- St. Louis Blues first-period total under 1.5 goals+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current GF/GA matchup blend projects 5.58 total goals: Ottawa 3.18, St. Louis 2.40.
- Nested first-period mean is 1.60 goals using the brief's 1.76/6.16 period share.
- Joel Hofer and Samuel Ersson are projected, not confirmed starters; a late goalie change alters the estimate.
- Ottawa Senators to win−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Our early-season Poisson model, shrinking team rates to a 2.84 goals-per-team league average, makes Ottawa 55% to win.
- Ottawa is 5-1 with 19 goals for and 12 against; St. Louis is 2-3 with a 14-16 goal margin.
- Polymarket US is cheaper than the best US sportsbook price on Ottawa (-110 FanDuel).
- Ottawa is on the second night of a back-to-back after Ullmark stopped 29 of 30 Monday; likely backup Samuel Ersson has an .886 save percentage.
Questions
Who won Blues vs. Senators?
The Blues won 7–2 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.