Wild vs. PanthersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAmerant Bank Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMinnesota Wild spread +2.5 79¢
Why Fair Dog likes it: Model sets Florida 3.05 goals and Minnesota 2.75, anchored to the sharp 5.8-goal total and 55.2% Florida win probability.
Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · −1% return
- Minnesota Wild spread +2.5+27%Won
Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model sets Florida 3.05 goals and Minnesota 2.75, anchored to the sharp 5.8-goal total and 55.2% Florida win probability.
- Florida win by 3+ projects at 17.5%, making Minnesota +2.5 a 82.5% fair cover.
- FanDuel's alternate Minnesota +2.5 is -410, so Polymarket is the cheaper US venue.
- Wallstedt and Markstrom are projected, not confirmed, roughly three hours before puck drop.
- Minnesota Wild game total under 6.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects approximately 5.8 goals after shrinking four-game rates toward 3.10/3.15 league averages.
- Poisson model gives roughly 64% for six or fewer goals; the contract costs 59¢.
- Pinnacle’s 6.5 under devigs near 57%, while Polymarket US is the cheaper same-rung quote.
- Wallstedt and Markstrom are projected, not confirmed; a late goalie change materially alters the total.
- Game total over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Novig
Whistle CountDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair over 5.5 is 57.4% from Poisson λ6.12: Pinnacle 6.0-goal mean plus the mandated 0.12.
- Assigned referees average 6.88 power-play chances per game; Sutherland 6.5 and Rehman 7.25 exceed the ~5.9 gate.
- Minnesota averages 3.25 own power-play chances, Florida 5.75; league penalty minutes are 10.54 per team-game.
- Starting goalies remain unconfirmed, so goalie quality could materially alter the scoring mean.
Questions
Who won Wild vs. Panthers?
The Wild won 4–1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.