Oilers vs. SharksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSAP Center at San Jose
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| SJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonEdmonton Oilers −1.5 38¢
Why Rung Seam likes it: Edmonton's current +1.5 goal differential per game leads San Jose's -0.5 by 2.0 goals, clearing the 1.2-goal form-gap screen.
Rung SeamUp 11% return this season · 31 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · +11% return
- San Jose Sharks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Novig
2 modelsScratch Sheet, Regulation GapWhy 2 models like it
Scratch Sheet- Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins are confirmed injured/absent in the official NHL game preview.
- Both were Edmonton top-six contributors by 2025-26 points and ice time: Hyman 52 points/1,199 seconds; Nugent-Hopkins 56/1,144.
- Macklin Celebrini remains a game-time decision; his availability materially changes San Jose's true strength.
Regulation Gap- Sharks two-way +142 implies 41.3%; Sharks regulation +170 implies 37.0%; draw +295 implies 25.3%, so regulation-plus-half-draw is 49.7%.
- The two-way Sharks probability is 8.4 points below that venue-implied reconciliation; the Oilers check also misses by 5.2 points (59.4% versus 51.9% + 12.7%).
- Both inputs are raw implied probabilities with market margin; the apparent gap is not a devigged model estimate.
- Edmonton Oilers −1.5+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edmonton's current +1.5 goal differential per game leads San Jose's -0.5 by 2.0 goals, clearing the 1.2-goal form-gap screen.
- Both sides are quoted at 0.38/0.63, and the ladder is monotone; the -1.5 rung is the clearest five-point discount.
- Adjacent favorite rungs are 0.38, 0.26, and 0.11, with no placeholder or wide-gap quote detected.
- The current-form sample is only four games, so the 43% base rate may not transfer cleanly.
- Edmonton Oilers to win+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Fade the GoalieDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NHL gamecenter lists Yaroslav Askarov opposite Tristan Jarry for this matchup.
- Askarov's latest 10 starts: .8657 save percentage on 283 shots, approximately 11.54 goals below the .9065 benchmark.
- Edmonton ranks 11th of 32 in current 5v5 shot-attempt share and 4th in goal differential; both clear the top-half opponent gate.
- Edmonton is without Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; those absences reduce the attacking edge.
- Edmonton Oilers vs San Jose Sharks first-period total under 1.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model first-period mean: 1.69 goals after blending the 1.63 matchup rate with the 1.76 league baseline.
- Clean first-period ladder: Over 0.5 is 86¢, Over 1.5 is 59¢, Over 2.5 is 28¢; both sides are quoted with roughly 1¢ gaps.
- Four-game period splits show only 1.63 expected first-period goals from the two teams' offense/defense rates.
- The first-period team sample is only four games and includes unusually volatile early-season scoring.
- Connor McDavid under 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.33 road shots per game across six games; he stayed under 3.5 in all six.
- Under 3.5 shots in four of McDavid's last five overall games.
- PrizePicks line is 3.5; the recent road average sits 33% below that threshold.
- Edmonton controls 51.2% of Corsi and 52.2% of Fenwick at 5-on-5, creating possession-driven shot upside.
Questions
Who won Oilers vs. Sharks?
The Oilers won 3-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.