Mammoth vs. DevilsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPrudential Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 7.5 27¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Poisson fit to Pinnacle -122/+111 and 6.5 total gives a 6.52-goal combined mean.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +47% return
- Game total over 7.5+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson fit to Pinnacle -122/+111 and 6.5 total gives a 6.52-goal combined mean.
- 7.5 is one rung above the 6.5 Pinnacle main total, and the over clears the 3.5-point minimum.
- Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed six hours out; this is reduced to 0.5u.
- Jake Allen over 23.5 total saves+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Allen's completeGamePct is 1.000 this season and .972 last season, limiting early-pull risk.
- Utah is averaging 31.0 shots through three games, with 30, 31, and 32 in its last three.
- Most likely loss: Utah generates 23 or fewer shots, leaving Allen below 24 saves.
- Utah Mammoth +1.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New Jersey won by 2+ in 22 of 84 tracked games across last season and this season.
- That margin rate implies Utah +1.5 near 73.8%, fair about -282; 69.23¢ implies 69.2%.
- Shrunk team form favors Utah: +2.3 recent margin versus New Jersey -2.5; last-season margins were +0.3 and -0.3.
- New Jersey's starting goalie is unconfirmed; Jake Allen and Nico Daws have sharply different early save results.
- Under 6.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on DraftKings
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent estimate: 59% under; fair price approximately -144 versus -125.
- Confirmed starters Jake Allen (.920 in his only start) and Karel Vejmelka (.857 last outing) support suppression.
- All five teams' completed games this season stayed below 6.5 goals; recent combined average is 5.8.
- Utah's power play is 66.7%, the matchup's clearest over path against New Jersey's 75% penalty kill.
- Clayton Keller over 0.5 assists+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Four assists through Utah's first two games, including back-to-back two-assist efforts.
- New Jersey has produced 81 shots in two games (40.5 per game), a high-event early-season matchup proxy.
- Four assists in two games is a tiny sample and invites substantial regression.
- Utah Mammoth @ New Jersey Devils first-period total under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UTA/NJD cross-rate estimate is 5.59 full-game goals from current GF/GA splits.
- Nesting 5.59 through the 1.76/6.16 league period share gives a first-period mean near 1.60.
- The target rung is traded, both sides are quoted, and the first-period ladder is monotone.
- Only five combined regular-season games make the team-rate estimate very noisy.
Questions
Who won Mammoth vs. Devils?
The Mammoth won 5–3 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.