Rangers vs. CapitalsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCapital One Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonIgor Shesterkin under 26 saves −137
Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: 68 saves on 73 shots across three October starts: 22.7 per game, 12.8% below the 26-save line.
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 628 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +5% return
- Igor Shesterkin under 26 saves+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 68 saves on 73 shots across three October starts: 22.7 per game, 12.8% below the 26-save line.
- Shesterkin is confirmed to start; he has won three straight and allowed two or fewer goals in all four starts.
- PrizePicks -137 implies roughly 57.8%; my estimated win probability is 65%.
- plus-shot Washington workload would put the under in danger.
- Pavel Dorofeyev over 2.5 shots on goal+74%Won
Taken at −135 on DraftKings
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3.00 SOG average across five 2026 games, exactly 0.50 above the 2.5 line.
- 16:17 average ice time clears the 16:00 deployment threshold.
- Projected on New York's second line and confirmed on the Rangers' first power-play unit.
- Washington's 31.0 allowed rate is based on three games and may be noisy.
- Rangers under 5.5 total+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent blended rate model makes the total about 5.2 goals; under estimate roughly 55%.
- Confirmed starters Shesterkin (.9271) and Thompson (.9206) support a lower-scoring baseline.
- Washington is averaging 3.667 goals through three games, a real path above 5.5.
- New York Rangers +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at −215 on FanDuel
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Shesterkin: .9271 save percentage and 1.755 GAA versus Thompson's .9206 and 2.502.
- Rangers are 4-1 with a +8 goal differential; Washington is 2-1 with a +3 differential.
- New York has three rest days versus Washington's two, and neither team is on a back-to-back.
- Washington is home and leads early in goals per game, power-play rate, penalty-kill rate, and shots.
- Igor Shesterkin under 26.5 total saves+80%Won
Taken at −125 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected saves center near 22.5: 24.3 expected shots against at Shesterkin's .926 season save rate.
- Shesterkin has averaged 22.25 saves across four starts; the under cashed in 3 of 4.
- Both Shesterkin and Logan Thompson were confirmed starters by Daily Faceoff before submission; current DraftKings quote is active.
- shot performance like Shesterkin's 28-save Utah outing would threaten the under.
- Logan Thompson over 22.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- New York Rangers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 50.5% Rangers win probability after shrinking early-season team rates toward the 3.12-goal league average.
- Rangers are 4-1 with 3.20 goals for and 1.60 against; Washington is 2-1 with 3.67 goals for and 2.67 against.
- Projected Shesterkin (.926 save percentage, 1.75 GAA) rates better than projected Thompson (.921, 2.50 GAA).
- Both goalies remain unconfirmed six hours before puck drop; a late backup switch would materially change the estimate.
Questions
Who won Rangers vs. Capitals?
The Capitals won 3–1 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.