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Lightning vs. AvalancheFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBall Arena
Lightning
3–6Final
Avalanche
Score by period
Team123T
TB0213
COL2226

Top model pick, graded

Won

Colorado Avalanche −1.5 32¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Pinnacle de-vigged home moneyline is 53.5%; 6.5 total prices to a 6.58-goal Poisson mean.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-5 on this game · +15% return

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on DraftKings

    2 modelsBrewing NHL Ml 2.0, The Stanley Cup
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing NHL Ml 2.0
    • Goalies confirmed: Andrei Vasilevskiy at 10:50 AM PT and Mackenzie Blackwood at 9:30 AM PT; both last checked 5:40 PM PT.
    • Tampa leads current 5-on-5 process: 55.8% Corsi, 54.7% close-state SAT, 53.0% tied-state SAT versus Colorado's 52.5%, 52.9%, 49.4%.
    • Backup stress with Hildeby/Wedgewood and a 10-cent worse price leaves the estimate near 52.8%, a narrow qualifying edge; a new top-six or top-four scratch would erase it.
    The Stanley Cup
    • Tampa is 7-2 with 3.44 GF and 2.56 GA per game; Colorado is 5-4-1 with 4.10 GF and 3.00 GA.
    • Tampa leads the 5-on-5 possession proxy: 55.8% SAT and 55.7% USAT versus Colorado's 52.6% for both.
    • Colorado is at home and owns the meaningful special-teams edge: 18.8% power play versus Tampa's 12.9%.
  2. Colorado Avalanche −1.5Long shot
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle de-vigged home moneyline is 53.5%; 6.5 total prices to a 6.58-goal Poisson mean.
    • Fitted Poisson means are approximately Colorado 3.65, Tampa Bay 2.93; base COL -1.5 fair is about 37.5%.
    • Colorado is the favorite and can reasonably add an empty-net goal; +2 points lifts fair to about 39.5%.
    • The 2-point empty-net adjustment is heuristic; an empty-net goal is not guaranteed.
  3. Over 5.5 total goals
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Novig

    Empty Net MathNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle posts 6.5 at +100/-112; the model starts from 6.5 and adds the mandated 0.20-goal empty-net adjustment.
    • Colorado is -120 at Pinnacle; the fitted favorite one-goal outcome share is approximately 43%, clearing the 38% candidate gate.
    • Both goalies are confirmed: Andrei Vasilevskiy for Tampa Bay and Mackenzie Blackwood for Colorado; the 6.5 line has held today.
    • The 0.20-goal empty-net lift is a structural average, not a matchup-specific forecast.
  4. Game goes to overtimeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Spread reference: Colorado -1.5 +206 and Tampa Bay +1.5 -240; only about 58% of the Kalshi spread ladder is two-goal-or-more territory.
    • Total reference: 6.5 at Pinnacle Over +100 / Under -113; modest under lean plus confirmed Vasilevskiy and Blackwood supports tie mass.
    • The teams have only 2 past-regulation results in 19 games so far, a 10.5% early-season sample that pulls against the play.
  5. T.J. Hughes over 1.5 shots on goal
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21 shots in 10 games (2.1 per game); over 1.5 in 7 of 10.
    • Current reported PP1 assignment follows Colorado absences Nicolas Roy, Zachary L’Heureux and Georgii Merkulov.
    • PP role: 66.4% team power-play share and 12.73 individual PP shots per 60.
    • PP1 is a projected assignment, not a guaranteed full-game deployment.
  6. Goal in first 10 minutes
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Mackenzie Blackwood (.888 save percentage) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (.897) form a below-average current goalie pairing.
    • Tampa's first-ten attempts were higher quality: 30.8-foot average distance and 29.0° angle.
    • The 67% ten-minute estimate remains below Kalshi's 85¢ first-period over-0.5 quote.
    • Only 9-10 games of current-season early-shot data; the estimate is sample-sensitive.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Tampa Bay Lightning over 1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −238 on DraftKings

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent probability 75%; fair price -300 versus DraftKings -238.
    • Confirmed Andrei Vasilevskiy starts for Tampa; Mackenzie Blackwood is confirmed for Colorado.
    • Tampa is 7-2-0 with 2.56 goals allowed per game; Colorado is 5-4-1 with 3.10 allowed.
    • Colorado scores 4.1 goals per game at home and can win by two through top-end offense.
  2. Mackenzie Blackwood saves over 23.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Research grade B72: confirmed starter and current restrictions cleared at 5:10pm PT.
    • Blackwood went over 23.5 saves in 4 of 7 current-season starts; exact-stat sample is 4-3.
    • Workload blend: Tampa averages 29.9 shots/game; Blackwood averages 25.6 shots against/start; blended projection is 24.7 saves.
    • Seven starts is a thin exact-stat sample; the observed 4-3 split is highly variable.
  3. Mackenzie Blackwood over 23.5 saves
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay averages 29.8 shots per game; at Blackwood's current .889 save percentage, that implies about 26.5 saves.
    • Blackwood is the confirmed Colorado starter, not a projected or backup-goalie prop.
    • The 29.8-shot input is a team average, not a matchup-specific forecast.
  4. Brandon Hagel over 3.0 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.2 shots per game over his last five (21 total), 40% above the 3.0 line.
    • Hagel is confirmed in Tampa Bay's top line with Cirelli and Kucherov.
    • The matchup projects active: Colorado averages 30.6 shots per game and Tampa Bay 29.8.
    • The last-five sample includes a one-shot game; shot variance is substantial.
  5. Mackenzie Blackwood over 23.5 total saves
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa's current 30.6 shots-for rate exceeds its prior baseline; Colorado's current 27.3 shots-against rate also exceeds its prior baseline.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa produces 23 or fewer shots, leaving Blackwood below 24 saves.

Questions

Who won Lightning vs. Avalanche?

The Avalanche won 6–3 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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