Senators vs. KingsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCrypto.com Arena

Senators

5–6Final

Kings

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
OTT	1	0	4	0	5
LAK	1	4	0	1	6

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game first-period total under 2.5 goals 75¢

Why First Frame Sum likes it: 1.56 current-season first-period mean from Ottawa/Los Angeles scoring and conceding rates.

First Frame SumDown 16% this season · 87 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 1-7 on this game · −83% return

Ottawa Senators to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Scratch Shift
Why 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0
- Ottawa is 8-5 with 3.00 GF and 2.92 GA per game; Los Angeles is 3-6-2 with 2.55 GF and 3.36 GA.
- Last-five 5v5 Corsi: Ottawa 52.2%, Los Angeles 43.0%.
- Early-season samples are only 13 Ottawa and 11 Los Angeles games; calibration uncertainty is material.
Scratch Shift
- Kevin Fiala is confirmed out; LA loses a top-six/top-line scorer with 14 5v5 goals and 14:29 5v5 ice time last season.
- Darcy Kuemper is confirmed as Los Angeles's opposing starter, satisfying the goalie gate.
- Fiala's week-to-week absence may have been known before today's board movement, weakening the timing thesis.
Under 4.5 total goalsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's 6.0 total sets a 6.0-goal Poisson mean; model gives 28.5% for five or fewer.
- Novig's total ladder is monotonic around the rung: under 4.5 at 24¢, under 5.5 at 47¢.
- Jonas Johansson and Darcy Kuemper were both confirmed starters in the live goalie lookup.
- One empty-net or late goal loses a low 4.5 line; NHL scoring is discrete and volatile.
Darcy Kuemper over 23.5 total saves
−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- No pull haircut: Los Angeles is +105; completeGamePct is .8571, so no complete-game deduction.
- Most likely loss: Ottawa generates 23 or fewer shots on goal in a low-event game.
Goal in first 10 minutes
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
First TenDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Confirmed goalies are Jonas Johansson (.892 SV%) and Darcy Kuemper (.889 SV%), a two-shaky-goalie pairing.
- Recent 5v5 shot quality is acceptable: Ottawa attempts average 32.31 ft and Los Angeles 33.64 ft.
- First-ten-minute scoring is highly volatile; one missed rebound or penalty swing dominates the sample.
Darcy Kuemper over 24.5 saves
−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 25.0 saves per start across Kuemper's seven 2026-27 starts.
- Kuemper cleared 24.5 in 4 of 7 starts, with no pushes.
- Ottawa averages 25.46 shots per game; Los Angeles allows 28.64, supporting a 25-plus shot workload.
- Kuemper's .8883 season save percentage means 25-plus shots do not reliably produce 25 saves.
Game first-period total under 2.5 goalsFavorite
+33%Won
Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1.56 current-season first-period mean from Ottawa/Los Angeles scoring and conceding rates.
- 5.8, 5.9 nested game-goal mean leaves roughly 1.5 first-period goals after 2.06 and 2.14 later-period baselines plus 0.2.
- Only 13 Ottawa and 11 Los Angeles games inform the first-period rates.

Show all 7 picks

Alex Laferriere under 2.5 shots on goal
−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 21 shots in his last 10 games equals 2.1 per game, 16% below the 2.5 line.
- Confirmed on Los Angeles' top line, so availability and role are verified rather than assumed.
- PrizePicks prices the under at -137, below my 61% win estimate's fair threshold.
- Top-line minutes with Panarin and Kempe can create more offensive-zone opportunities.

Questions

Who won Senators vs. Kings?

The Kings won 6–5 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.