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Flames vs. AvalancheFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBall Arena
Flames
2–5Final
Avalanche
Score by period
Team123T
CGY0112
COL1315

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 6.5 goals 51¢

Why Second String Shootout likes it: Pinnacle remained at 6.5, moving only from -109 to -111 over; the backup shift is not fully priced.

Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-4 on this game · +58% return

  1. Colorado Avalanche to winFavorite2 models agree
    +26%Won

    Taken at −380 on DraftKings

    2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, high-confidence main markets
    Why 2 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Own estimate 80.5% versus 77.1% sharp-market fair probability; fair price about -413, acceptable to -400.
    • Colorado leads 4.154-2.615 in goals per game and 3.154-3.615 in goals against over 13 games.
    • Early 13-game sample: Colorado is only 7-5-1, while Calgary is 4-1 in its last five.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Colorado has 4.15 goals per game versus Calgary's 2.62 through 13 games.
    • Confirmed Mackenzie Blackwood owns a .894 save percentage; Calgary's confirmed Arsenii Sergeev has no established NHL-season sample.
    • Colorado is 2-3 in its last five while Calgary is 4-1, so recent form cuts against the favorite.
  2. Cale Makar over 2.5 shots on goal2 models agree
    +76%Won

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNHL Shot Volume Hunter, NHL Player Prop Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    NHL Shot Volume Hunter
    • 3.0 SOG/game over the last 10, exactly 0.5 above the 2.5 line; 3+ in 6 of 10.
    • 23:05 average TOI over the last 10 provides elite opportunity for a defenseman.
    • Makar's mean is only one shot above the threshold and four of his last 10 were below 2.5.
    NHL Player Prop Edge
    • 3.0 SOG/game over his last 10; cleared 2.5 in 6 of 10.
    • ~23.1 minutes/game in that span with a power-play assignment listed.
    • Colorado's combination status is expected, not confirmed, ahead of puck drop.
  3. Joel Farabee over 0.5 points2 models agree
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, NHL Player Prop Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 10 of 13 current-season games cleared 0.5 points; no pushes.
    • Last five: 4 overs; last ten: 8 overs, averaging 1.8 and 1.3 points.
    • The 13-game early-season sample is thin; 10/13 can regress sharply.
    NHL Player Prop Edge
    • 18.6 minutes/game with expected top-line and first-power-play deployment.
    • 7.90 individual shots per 60; PP1 role supplies repeatable offensive opportunity.
    • Calgary played Friday night; fatigue could reduce Farabee's ice time or finishing quality.
  4. Calgary Flames +1.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Avalanche moneyline is 0.79; Calgary is 0.22, implying Colorado is the clear favorite.
    • The teams' recent scoring-margin gap is 1.9 goals, qualifying for the strongest-favorite base-rate bucket.
    • Strong favorites win by 2+ about 43%; therefore Calgary +1.5 is roughly 57% fair.
    • Calgary loses this ticket by two or more goals, including an empty-net margin.
  5. Game total over 6.5 goals
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle remained at 6.5, moving only from -109 to -111 over; the backup shift is not fully priced.
    • A 6.5 total needs seven goals; Calgary's Friday back-to-back can suppress finishing and pace.
  6. Game total over 5.5 goals
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado's five-game shot-attempt blend ranks second: 63.4 created, Calgary allowed 54.6, blended 59.0.
    • Sergeev may outperform the backup adjustment; this is a small early-season sample.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Calgary Flames over 6.5 total goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare ShootoutUp 97% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed backup Arsenii Sergeev starts for Calgary; Colorado's confirmed Mackenzie Blackwood is not a backup.
    • Colorado ranks first in the current 32-team expected-shot screen; its 30.38 shots/game plus Calgary's 29.62 allowed implies 30.0 expected shots.
    • Calgary's 13-game scoring sample is early-season and includes only 2.62 goals per game.
  2. Over 6.5 total goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Cold NetUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed backup Arsenii Sergeev is in net; the model adds roughly 0.3 goals for the backup effect and 0.2 for empty-net scoring.
    • Sharp total is 6.5 at -110, while Kalshi's direct 6.5 ladder has a one-cent spread and 30,042 contracts traded in 24 hours.
    • Sergeev's .964 save rate last season came in only one NHL appearance and 28 shots; his true level is highly uncertain.
  3. Matt Coronato over 0.5 assistsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Huberdeau is on IR; Coronato is assigned to Calgary's first line and expected first power-play unit.
    • Current season: 6 assist games in 13, with 1.323 primary assists per 60 at five-on-five.
    • His 5v5 production is 1.984 points/60, and Farabee and Backlund provide credible first-line finishing targets.
    • The first-line and PP1 assignments are Daily Faceoff expectations, not an official unit confirmation.
  4. Mackenzie Blackwood over 21.5 goalie saves
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    NHL Player Prop EdgeUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado averages 30.4 shots on goal per game this season.
    • Calgary allowed 30.0 opponent shots/game over its last 10.
    • Blackwood cleared 21.5 saves in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • Colorado's 4.15 goals/game can turn shots into goals rather than saves.
  5. Calgary Flames puck line +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Goal-difference fit estimates Colorado wins by 3+ about 43%, so Calgary +2.5 covers about 57%.
    • Fit is anchored to Colorado's sharp -431 moneyline and the 6.5 total, then checked against the strong-favorite 3+ base rate.
    • Colorado's 4.154 goals per game and home offense can turn a one-goal game into a three-goal margin.
  6. Calgary Flames +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    Dog CushionDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Trailing-25 goal-difference gap is 1.52 (Colorado +0.72, Calgary -0.80), placing this in the 1.2+ base-rate bucket.
    • Pinnacle's same-line prices (-123 Calgary +2.5 / +110 Colorado -2.5) devig to 53.7% Calgary cover probability.
    • Calgary is on a back-to-back with one day of rest; Colorado has three days off.
  7. First-period total under 2.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nested 6.5-game-total anchor and team rates produce a first-period mean of about 1.77 goals.
    • Colorado and Calgary combine for 24 first-period goals in 26 team-games; scaled to the 6.5 total, P(under 2.5) is about 73.9%.
    • The ladder is monotone: first-period Over prices are 88¢, 60¢, 32¢, and 16¢ at 0.5 through 3.5.
    • A fast multi-goal opening period loses at three or more goals.
  8. Game over 6.5 total goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 6.8 goals; BETALAB estimates 57.5% to clear 6.5, fair price 57.5¢.
    • Season scoring baseline is 6.77 combined goals per game: Colorado 4.15, Calgary 2.62.
    • Recent 10-game totals average 6.2 for Calgary and 7.2 for Colorado.
    • Blackwood's 2.81 GAA and .894 save rate can suppress Calgary's contribution.
  9. Mackenzie Blackwood over 21.5 saves
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25.3 saves per start across Blackwood's four 2026 starts, 17% above 21.5.
    • Calgary averaged 26.4 shots on goal across its last five games, 23% above the target.
    • Blackwood is the confirmed Colorado starter; PrizePicks prices the over at -137.
    • Calgary is on the second night of a back-to-back, which can reduce shot generation.
  10. Mackenzie Blackwood over 21.5 total saves
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CompleteGamePct is 1.00, so there is no early-pull deduction; Colorado also has two days' rest.
    • Partial coverage: Colorado and Calgary have 13 current games each, while Blackwood has only nine starts; prior-season team rates drive the blend.
  11. Tie (3P)Long shot
    +335%Won

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    Late TiesUp 329% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 28.9% model tie probability from shrunk third-period means: Calgary 0.845, Colorado 1.271 goals.
    • Confirmed starters are Arsenii Sergeev and Mackenzie Blackwood; the three-way ladder is quoted and sums near 1.
    • Only 13 current-season games; hard shrink and Poisson independence are fragile.
  12. Game total over 6.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season rates sum to 7.77 goals per game: Colorado scores 4.15 and Calgary allows 3.62.
    • Recent game totals averaged 5.4 in Calgary's last five and 7.2 in Colorado's last five.
    • Calgary played Friday, creating back-to-back fatigue and a plausible pace or finishing downside.

Questions

Who won Flames vs. Avalanche?

The Avalanche won 5–2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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