FinalStadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris · Genova
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIOR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GENO | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 2.5 goals 46¢
Why Vig Gap likes it: Movement is not closing the gap: Kalshi's latest captured over was 45¢ after 46¢ earlier, while Polymarket was 45.5¢ after a brief 44.5¢ print.
Vig GapUp 42% return this season · 26 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-9 on this game · −32% return
- total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsXI Delta, Low Tide Line +2Why 4 models like it
XI Delta- Model goal rates are 0.8 for Genoa and 1.5 for Fiorentina: 2.3 expected goals.
- 1 score loses despite the low 2.3-goal projection.
Low Tide Line- Pinnacle's sharp reference moved to Over 2.25 -122, reinforcing the lower-goals direction despite the Asian-line difference.
- Recent Kalshi movement eased Over from 46¢ to 44.5¢, moving toward the Under thesis.
- The model uses only 10 competitive matches for each team, making early-season estimates volatile.
Two Nil- Opponent-adjusted xG read: Genoa 1.03 for / 1.34 against; Fiorentina 1.16 for / 1.31 against; computed total ≈2.42.
- Kalshi’s 2.5 ladder implies roughly 2.47 goals, close to my 2.42 projection; this is a small edge, not a strong divergence.
Long Haul- Confirmed XIs show 11 starters for each team; this removes lineup uncertainty, but is not itself a decay edge.
- the direct ProphetX total-goals ladder is the placement reference; other-market prices are context only.
- Most likely loss path is three or more regular-time goals; the 2.5 line has no push.
- BTTS NO−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- Nine xG-backed matches for each team: Genoa scoring λ≈1.21 from 1.03 oppadj xGF and Fiorentina 1.38 xGA; Fiorentina λ≈1.18 from 1.16 oppadj xGF and Genoa 1.20 xGA.
- The side read averages attack and opponent xGA and assumes scoring independence; that modeling choice can overstate or understate BTTS-NO.
Number Earned- Fair line is approximately -128; the +100 price offers about 6.1 probability points of cushion.
- Genoa home xG for is 1.05; Fiorentina away xG for is 1.18 in the matchup board.
- Confirmed starting XIs were not posted at the 5:21 AM check; late lineup news can materially change the goal model.
- Game total over 2.5 goals+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket
Vig GapDown 3% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Movement is not closing the gap: Kalshi's latest captured over was 45¢ after 46¢ earlier, while Polymarket was 45.5¢ after a brief 44.5¢ print.
- Most likely loss: Genoa and Fiorentina finish with two or fewer combined goals.
- Genoa spread +0.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional-coherence check completed: Fiorentina's stronger recent results temper the edge, but do not overturn the home-plus-half-goal protection.
- Recent 20-game results conflict with the projection: Genoa 7-3-10, Fiorentina 9-6-5.
- Match total under 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates set Genoa 1.17 and Fiorentina 1.25 goals; Poisson under 2.5 is 56.6%.
- The warehouse model's independent 1.00/1.15 rate pair gives 63.6% under 2.5.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is a 2.25-goal total, Under +111, consistent with the lower-total side.
- The opponent-adjusted estimate is only modestly above the 54% contract price; model disagreement is meaningful.
- Total Goals over 2.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed-XI attacking aggregates are Genoa 1.88 xG and Fiorentina 1.71 xG.
- Genoa's sheet changes several names from its 2026-09-20 XI; Fiorentina's 11 starters are unchanged by name-equivalent comparison.
- Current starters include Genoa's Messias (.32 xG/90), Baldanzi (.22), Osmajic (.19), and Vitinha (.19), plus Fiorentina's Mastantuono (.33), Pellegrino (.22), and Pedro (.24).
- No lineup-post timestamp is recorded, so this is projection rather than a provable TIMING edge; the XI aggregate is model-derived.
Show all 10 picks
- Match over 2.5 goals+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
ParallaxDown 60% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 5.73-point gap is inside the brief's 4, 12-point moderate target.
- ProphetX moved from 46.08¢ to 45.66¢ over roughly an hour: 0.9% relative decay, still below 15% and not closing the gap.
- There are about 2h28m to kickoff, leaving time for this fresh disagreement to matter.
- The feature sample is only 10 matches per side; xG rates remain modest and match variance is wide.
- Tie 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 30 recent Serie A fixtures produced 36 of 93 goals before halftime: 0.39 share.
- Scaled lambdas 0.39 and 0.44 with dc_rho -0.05 give a 52.1% 1H tie probability.
- The 30-match sample contains 93 goals; the measured share can vary with fixture mix.
- Match under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at −140 on BetMGM
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Genoa home xG: 1.03 for, 1.34 against; Fiorentina away: 1.16 for, 1.31 against.
- The 10-match samples are modest and the model is Dixon-Coles, not a validated independent forecast.
- Fiorentina spread NO at 1.5+22%Won
Taken at 82¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Comparable Serie A 2026 sample: 8 of 50 matches had an away-side margin of at least two goals (16%), reinforcing the lumpy read.
- no independent sharp full-match handicap at this exact rung; edge class PROJECTION, therefore capped at LEAN.
- Only about 1.7 probability points separate my 83.7% estimate from the 82c NO price; variance dominates.
Questions
Who won Fiorentina vs. Genoa?
Genoa won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.