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FinalStadio Comunale Via del Mare · Lecce
Bologna
2–1Final
Lecce
Score by period
Team12T
BOLO112
LECC011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Bologna to win +100

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Palladino’s 3-2-5 build-up and 3-4-1-2 press create a deliberate numerical and positional test for Lecce’s 4-3-3.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-3 on this game · +73% return

  1. Bologna to win4 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    4 modelsCoaches Corner, Low Tide Line +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Palladino’s 3-2-5 build-up and 3-4-1-2 press create a deliberate numerical and positional test for Lecce’s 4-3-3.
    • Current previews consistently list Bologna in Palladino’s three-back 3-4-2-1 shape against Di Francesco’s Lecce 4-3-3.
    • Expected rather than officially confirmed XIs leave Bologna’s exact rotation and role assignments uncertain close to kickoff.
    Low Tide Line
    • Bologna's rating is 1558 versus Lecce's 1441; projected goals are Bologna 2.03, Lecce 0.90.
    • Pinnacle's 46.5% devigged Bologna probability still makes Bologna the sharp-market favorite.
    • The 15-point model gap is unusually large; Pinnacle's 46.5% fair probability is much less bullish.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • 63.1% warehouse model away-win probability versus 48.8% break-even at +105.
    • Bologna lead the rating matchup 1558 to 1441 Elo; Lecce’s home xGA is 1.90.
    • Bologna are 0-3-2 in the recent 5-game form sample, while Lecce are 2-3 at home.
    Number Earned
    • Bologna leads the warehouse model 63.1% away-win probability; model xG is 2.03 Bologna to 0.90 Lecce.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Bologna: 1.33 away xG created versus Lecce's 1.18 at home, and 1.04 versus 2.07 allowed.
    • Starting-eleven feed is not fully confirmed; its confirmation count is 9, so late lineup news could materially change the estimate.
  2. Bologna −0.53 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Standing Order +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • confirmed XI attacking xG is Bologna 1.86 versus Lecce 1.35, a +0.51 Bologna delta.
    • Pinnacle's same away -0.5 reference is +111; ProphetX is the slightly better venue price, while the structural case comes from the team sheet.
    • Lecce's home expected-goals-against rate is 1.90, so Bologna can concede despite the stronger confirmed XI signal.
    Standing Order
      • no sharp-book confirmation; this is an internal ProphetX order-flow claim.
      Deep Book
        • The price drifted 0.92 percentage points against Bologna despite the current size imbalance.
      • Bologna FC first team to score
        +79%Won

        Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

        First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
        Why it likes it
        • Model lambdas: Lecce 0.90; Bologna 2.03. Constant-hazard Bologna FTTS probability is 65.6%.
        • Late-goal concentration is measurable: 76-90 contains 23.4% of 2026 goals versus 12.9% in 0-15; desk correction lifts Bologna to 65.9%.
        • Pinnacle independently prices the total at 2.2 goals, over -111, supporting a high-arrival environment.
        • Starting XIs are not posted; the feature row was computed through 2026-09-20.
      • Bologna spread −0.5
        +113%Won

        Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

        Half Goal PairsUp 2% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • ProphetX prices Bologna at -210 in its 2-way market and +110 in its 90-minute binary, supporting the away direction.
        • The most likely loss path is a draw: the model assigns 21.5% to a draw; any Lecce win also loses, for 36.9% modeled non-cover probability.
      • Bologna regular-time spread −0.5
        +113%Won

        Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

        Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Warehouse model makes Bologna the 90-minute winner 63.1%; lambdas are Bologna 2.03 and Lecce 0.90.
        • Opponent-adjusted xG supports Bologna: +0.29 xG difference per match versus Lecce at -0.89, each over 10 matches with xG.
        • Confirmed lineups show 11 starters for both teams; no friendlies in either 10-match xG window.
        • The regression gap itself is modest: Bologna goals 1.00 versus 1.19 xG (-0.19), Lecce 1.10 versus 1.31 xG (-0.21); this is primarily a board-coherence play.
      • Over 2.5 Total Goals
        +127%Won

        Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

        Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Opponent-adjusted xG: Lecce home 1.18 for / 2.07 against; Bologna away 1.33 for / 1.04 against.
        • Starting XIs were not posted at 3:17am, so striker or goalkeeper rotation could move the true lambdas.
      Show all 12 picks
      1. Match total over 2.5 goals
        +127%Won

        Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

        Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Soccer warehouse coverage is complete for model, form, xG, and ratings; each team has 10 prior xG games.
        • Pinnacle's 2.25-goal over at -111 supports the over direction, though it is a different line.
        • The projection is an early-season sample with only 10 prior xG games per team and may miss current tactical changes.
      2. Bologna spread over 1.5 goalsLong shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

        HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
      3. Bologna FC wins 3-0Long shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

        ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Model lambdas are Lecce 0.90 and Bologna 2.03; Bologna occupies five of the six top-k scorelines.
        • Internal coherence check passes: live draw sum is 27.5% versus the Kalshi three-way tie midpoint of 29.5%; 20 of 30 listed score contracts fail the dead-quote screen.
        • Starting XIs were not posted; Lecce has 11 sidelined and Bologna 6, with lineup impact unknown.
      4. total goals over 2.5
        +127%Won

        Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

        Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Opp-adjusted xG: Lecce 1.18 for / 2.07 against; Bologna 1.33 for / 1.04 against.
        • No exact-rung independent sharp price: Pinnacle posts 2.25, so this remains venue self-reference.
      5. Both Teams To Score
        +96%Won

        Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

        Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Projection: Lecce scoring read 66.9% (1.11 blended xG rate); Bologna scoring read 81.7% (1.70), each side backed by 10 xG matches.
        • Symmetric BTTS case: both scoring probabilities clear 50%; Bologna's 1.33 oppadj xGF faces Lecce's 2.07 oppadj xGA, while Lecce's 1.18 faces Bologna's 1.04.
        • Lecce's 1.04 oppadj xGF matchup against Bologna's defense still leaves a live 0-1 or 0-2 failure path.
      6. Bologna spread over 2.5 goalsLong shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi

        HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Raw xG inputs are Lecce home for 1.31 / against 1.90 and Bologna away for 1.19 / against 1.08; opponent-adjusted pairs are 1.18/2.07 and 1.33/1.04, with 10 xG matches each.
        • Serie A sample: 40 of 53 prior matches finished within goal difference -2 to +2; the live one-goal lead makes the >2.5 tail materially more reachable than the pregame tail.
        • A Lecce equalizer or a quiet Bologna attack loses the ticket; the current lead is only one goal at 22'.

      Questions

      Who won Bologna vs. Lecce?

      Bologna won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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