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FinalStadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
Parma
0–3Final
Inter
Score by period
Team12T
PARM000
INT303

Top model pick, graded

Won

Inter −1.5 64¢

Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: Directional check passes: confirmed lineups retain Inter’s main attacking core, while the feature board shows Parma with nine sidelined versus Inter’s two.

Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-6 on this game · −8% return

  1. Total goals over 2.5Favorite2 models agree
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBench Boss, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • Inter’s 63.9% field tilt and 12.70 PPDA versus Parma’s 38.9% and 15.68 support sustained territorial pressure.
    • Ten-game sample: Inter averages 19.0 shots and 6.5 on target; Parma allows the matchup to start from 8.78 shots and 2.67 on target.
    • Lautaro Martínez, Nicolò Barella, and Alessandro Bastoni are on Inter’s bench, so rotation could reduce finishing and control.
    Deep Book
    • Both sides are quoted. The over clears the $300 availability gate and the -250 to +300 price band.
    • Inter averages 25 goals for and 14 against in 10 home matches; Parma averages 9 for and 13 against in 10 away matches.
    • LEAN only. The 3.28x imbalance is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  2. Over 3.5 Total Goals2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil Pairs
    • adjacent over 2.5 is -235/70.15¢ and under 3.5 is -114/53.27¢; the ladder supports elevated scoring.
    • Exactly 0-3 goals loses; the model leaves approximately 43.5% on that side of the 3.5 line.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model lambdas total 3.99 goals (Inter 3.18, Parma 0.81).
    • Inter's opponent-adjusted xG for is 2.52; Parma's opponent-adjusted xG against is 1.70.
    • Three goals loses despite the high expected total; the outcome remains wide.
  3. Both Teams To Score2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsBoth Nets, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Both Nets
    • Opp-adjusted read: Inter scores 87.4% (2.52 attack versus Parma 1.70 xGA); Parma scores 64.8% (0.83 versus Inter 1.31 xGA).
    • Asymmetric YES case: Inter is the strong attacker, but Parma's scoring chance remains viable against a non-elite Inter defense.
    • Parma's weaker attack can fail entirely, producing an Inter clean-sheet win despite Inter's high scoring probability.
    Number Earned
    • Underlying lambdas are 3.18 Inter and 0.81 Parma; the model makes BTTS Yes 53.4%, about a 53¢ fair contract.
    • Inter's home xG is 2.35 and Parma's away xG is 0.79; both sides have credible scoring paths.
    • Lautaro Martínez, Nicolò Barella, and Alessandro Bastoni are listed on Inter's bench, weakening the model's baseline attack and defense assumptions.
  4. Inter −1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check passes: confirmed lineups retain Inter’s main attacking core, while the feature board shows Parma with nine sidelined versus Inter’s two.
    • The half-goal rung has no push protection; any result short of a two-goal Inter win loses outright.
  5. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Inter xG 2.35 plus Parma xG 0.79 gives 3.13; Poisson under 2.5 is about 39.4% before XI adjustment.
    • Inter’s confirmed XI omits 5/5 starter Bastoni, 5/5 starter Josep Martínez and 4/5 starter Lautaro Martínez; Bonny and Provedel had 0/5 starts.
    • Parma’s XI retains seven players with four starts in the last five, while Inter’s lineup has only three players with at least four starts in that span.
    • The 3.13 xG baseline still makes three or more goals more likely than not; the lineup adjustment may be too small.
  6. Total Goals (Regular Time) over 2.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed sheets supply 6.00 combined starting-XI attack xG: Inter 4.51 and Parma 1.49.
    • Inter starts Lautaro Martínez (0.87 xG/90), Marcus Thuram (0.77) and Ange-Yoan Bonny (0.31); Parma starts David Romero (0.53) and El Bilal Touré (0.29).
    • Most likely loss: the match finishes with 0, 2 goals, especially 2-0 or 1-0.
Show all 12 picks
  1. Inter to winFavorite
    +16%Won

    Taken at 86¢ on Kalshi

    ParallaxDown 60% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle sharp-reference probability is 94.3% versus Kalshi midpoint 85.5%: an 8.8-point gap.
    • Venue price was stable around 85.5¢ over the preceding hour, so decay is under 15% and the gap remains actionable.
    • Inter’s current 10-match form is 6-3-1, 2.1 points per match, against Parma’s 3-1-6 and 1.0.
    • The warehouse model is less bullish at 82.9% home-win probability, creating a meaningful model-versus-market disagreement.
  2. Over 2.5 Total GoalsFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fresh 8:15 AM PDT lineup lookup returned 11 starters each; the full board showed no BTTS-shaped market, so totals-only.
    • Parma's 0.83 opponent-adjusted xG-for can leave Inter needing three alone; finishing variance is substantial.
  3. Total goals under 3.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent Pinnacle reference is Over 3.5 +106 / Under 3.5 -119; its under direction is consistent with the xG projection.
    • PPDA is 12.70 for Inter and 15.68 for Parma, with field tilt 0.64 and 0.39; Inter's aggressive tilt nudges hotter, but does not erase the xG under lean.
    • or 4-goal result is close to the 3.5 threshold; Parma's defensive xGA input is volatile and the estimated edge is modest.
  4. Total goals over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • no Long Haul decay pillar clears: rest is Inter 21 days versus Parma 20, travel is unrecorded, and grass carries no signal.
    • Lambdas total 3.99 (Inter 3.18, Parma 0.81); Poisson translation gives approximately 56.5% for four or more goals.
    • Confirmed XI gate cleared: the live lineup has 12 starters for Inter and 11 for Parma; all model coverage flags are true with nine minimum xG matches.
    • Most likely loss path is three or fewer regular-time goals; this 3.5 line has no push.
  5. Inter spread over 1.5Favorite
    +10%Won

    Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Inter lead Parma 2-0 at 24'; live-state cross-check puts final margin above 1.5 near 92%.
    • Inputs: Inter opp-adjusted home xGF/XGA 2.52/1.31 (10 xG matches); Parma away 0.83/1.70 (9). Dixon-Coles lambdas are 3.18/.809.
    • The live estimate extrapolates pregame lambdas rather than a full live-xG model; cards, injuries and tactical changes are unknown.
  6. Inter spread over 2.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: DC lambdas are Inter 3.18 and Parma 0.81; exact lambda cross-check gives approximately 45.3% for Inter +3.
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: Inter attack 2.52, Parma away xGA 1.70; Parma attack 0.83, Inter home xGA 1.31.
    • Current-season Serie A sample has 259/289 results within goal differences 0, ±1, or ±2; only 19/289 were +3 or larger, though not favorite-conditioned.

Questions

Who won Parma vs. Inter?

Inter won 3-0 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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