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FinalSardegna Arena · Cagliari
Juventus
1–1Final
Cagliari
Score by period
Team12T
JUV011
CAGL101

Top model pick, graded

Won

Both Teams To Score 47¢

Why Both Nets likes it: Serie A, PROJECTION: blended scoring reads are Cagliari 61.4% and Juventus 83.2% to score; BTTS-YES estimate 51.1%.

Both NetsDown 6% this season · 589 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 1-11 on this game · −82% return

  1. Total goals over 2.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsTwo Nil, Snapp Decision of the Day +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Pinnacle lists Over 2.5 at +107 and its devigged board probability is 0.47; raw Kalshi yes_ask 0.47 is already a fraction, equivalent to 47c.
    • The xG samples are only 9 and 10 matches, below the desk's 12-match top tier; the 2.79 projection is noisier than a fully covered read.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Juventus 1.86 for versus Cagliari 1.02.
    • Recent shots average: Juventus 16.5, Cagliari 9.8; shots on target 6.7 versus 3.7.
    • Cagliari-Juventus has averaged only 2.0 goals across three recorded meetings.
    Long Haul
    • Warehouse model lambda is 0.67 home and 2.41 away, for 3.08 expected goals; coverage flags are all true with nine xG matches on the thinner side.
    • LEAN one-leg ticket at half stake; lineups are not posted, so this is not a rest, travel, surface, or aggregate-state claim.
    • Most likely loss: two or fewer goals despite the 3.08-goal model projection.
  2. Juventus to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −175 on BetMGM

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Low Tide Line +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • 67.3% pre-match away-win model versus 63.6% break-even at BetMGM -175.
    • Spalletti specifically prepared for Cagliari's space-inviting, quick-turnover scheme rather than treating possession as automatic control.
    • Cagliari's deliberate counterattacking space can punish Juventus if the away structure overcommits.
    Low Tide Line
    • All model, form, xG and rating coverage flags are true; both teams show 10 competitive matches and zero friendlies.
    • Juventus changed heavily: four key regulars departed, including Locatelli, McKennie and two goalkeepers.
    Number Earned
    • Matchup xG favors Juventus 2.04 away versus Cagliari 0.74 at home.
    • Juventus are 6-3-1 away with a 15-8 goal difference; Cagliari are 2-4-4 at home.
    • Only a 1.2-point probability edge over DraftKings' roughly 66.1% raw implication; variance dominates.
  3. Juventus spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED band; -1.5 is a half-goal line, so it cannot push and exactly one-goal wins lose.
    • Directional check passes on Juventus' 4-1-1 recent run and 2.04 away lambda, but Cagliari are 3-2 recently and won the last meeting 1-0.
  4. Juventus Turin first team to scoreFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model lambdas: Cagliari 0.67, Juventus 2.41; constant-hazard Juventus first-score probability is 74.7%.
    • Serie A goal timing rises late: 91 goals in 0-15 versus 207 in 76-90; late-hazard correction leaves Juventus at 74.7%.
    • Team-total cross-check: Juventus over 0.5 is 84.5c, above first-score probability as required.
    • Starting XIs were not posted; game_stats reports 10 sidelined players per team.
  5. Cagliari over 0.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Cagliari XI includes Daniel Maldini and Paul Mendy; XI attacking xG is 1.10 versus 1.85 recent baseline, a 40.6% shortfall.
    • Timing test: latest Kalshi change was 2026-10-11 10:41:00 PDT; first confirmed lineup observation was 2026-10-11 10:49:37 PDT.
    • Pinnacle BTTS No was -124 at 10:50:56 PDT; no team-total sharp line was posted.
    • The warehouse does not separately timestamp lineup publication; 10:49:37 PDT is the first confirmed observation, not a publisher timestamp.
  6. Juventus Turin wins 3-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Top-k rank 2; lambdas are 0.67 home and 2.41 away.
    • live draw bound is 22.5%, below the Kalshi Tie midpoint of 24.5%.
    • Ten live score contracts have a 77.5% midpoint sum; the grid is not normalized.
    • no sharp correct-score quote corroborates this exact contract.
Show all 8 picks
  1. Both Teams To Score
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Serie A, PROJECTION: blended scoring reads are Cagliari 61.4% and Juventus 83.2% to score; BTTS-YES estimate 51.1%.
    • Moderately symmetric BTTS case: Juventus attack faces Cagliari's 1.66 xGA, while Cagliari's 1.23 opp-adjusted xGF meets Juventus's 0.67 xGA defense.
    • Juventus's 0.67 xGA is a real clean-sheet threat, so Cagliari failing to score is the clearest loss path.
  2. Juventus spread over 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cagliari/Juventus opp-adjusted inputs are 1.23/0.73 and 1.91/1.71; Dixon-Coles lambdas are 0.67 and 2.41.
    • Current Serie A sample: 53 matches had goal difference 0: 9, +1: 15, +2: 5, 3+: 5; the ladder is visibly lumpy, not smooth.
    • Juventus has only five current-season Serie A results: two wins by 2+, and no win by 3+, making team-specific evidence thin.

Questions

Who won Juventus vs. Cagliari?

Cagliari won 1-1 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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