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FinalStadio Diego Armando Maradona · Napoli
Frosinone
0–3Final
Napoli
Score by period
Team12T
FROS000
NAPO213

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total over 2.5 goals 65¢

Why Early Whistle likes it: Opponent-adjusted rates are 1.51/1.34 for Napoli and 1.66/1.90 for Frosinone (for/against).

Early WhistleUp 3% return this season · 157 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-10 on this game · −61% return

  1. Frosinone to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +480 on FanDuel

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Napoli's press intensity is 3.6 versus a 4.22 Serie A average; PPDA is 16.36 versus 15.05.
    • Napoli's build-up struggles under pressure and only 23 high turnovers through five matches create counter opportunities.
    • A three-way away-moneyline ticket loses on any draw; Napoli's confirmed XI still includes Lobotka, De Bruyne, Politano, and its main center-backs.
    Number Earned
    • My blended fair probability is 31%, versus 19.0% implied by DraftKings +425; fair line is about +223.
    • Warehouse model makes Frosinone the winner 46.0%; its expected goals are 1.85 versus Napoli's 1.48.
    • The warehouse model's feature timestamp is stale at 2025-12-29, so the 46.0% estimate is not accepted uncritically.
  2. Match total over 2.5 goalsFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted rates are 1.51/1.34 for Napoli and 1.66/1.90 for Frosinone (for/against).
    • The model rate pair is Napoli 2.12, Frosinone 1.64: 3.76 expected goals.
    • Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3.25 goals (-103 over, -109 under), supporting a high-scoring baseline.
    • The opponent-adjusted sample has only six xG-supported matches on the thinner side.
  3. Frosinone Calcio first team to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • λ Napoli 2.12, λ Frosinone 1.65; model first-score probability is 42.7%.
    • Pinnacle total is 3.2 at -104/-106, supporting a high-goal environment.
    • No Goal is 2.5c versus 3.5c implied by the 96.5c Over 0.5 ladder; the 1.0-point gap is below combined spreads.
    • Only six matches meet the xG coverage minimum; model uncertainty is material.
  4. Frosinone wins 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 1H Frosinone quote is 15.5c, identical to its full-time 15.5c quote; the strict ordering check fails.
    • Measured Serie A first-half goal share is 36 of 83 goals, or 43.4%, across 25 recent fixtures.
    • Scaled Dixon-Coles rates are 0.92 home and 0.71 away; computed Frosinone 1H win probability is 26.2%.
    • The Frosinone xG coverage is only six matches; parameter error can dominate.
  5. Frosinone +1 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T08:58:33-07:00. Fixture is scheduled; one-leg ticket.
    • The under 3.5 refill is veneered at 56.4% of depth, and all size evidence is one snapshot.
  6. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI: 11 starters for both teams; the 10-fixture XI-quality window has xG coverage and 9/10 known players by team.
    • Napoli's announced XI restores regulars Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani and Matteo Politano; the defensive continuity is load-bearing for the under.
    • Pre-lineup reference was under 3.5 at -138 in the 12:07 AM capture; the current contract has not repriced toward an under read.
    • Most likely loss: four or more goals; the warehouse model still gives over 2.5 a 64.7% probability.
Show all 12 picks
  1. Match total under 3.5 goals
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 3.5 in 4 of Napoli's last 5 finals and 4 of Frosinone's last 5.
    • Napoli's 10 home matches produced only 17 combined goals: 10 for, 7 against.
    • Confirmed lineups include Napoli's defensive core: Rrahmani, Badiashile, Marín and Di Lorenzo.
    • The warehouse model projects 64.7% over 2.5, conflicting with this under read.
  2. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Napoli scoring probability ≈81.6%, using 1.51 xG-for and 1.90 opponent xG-against; 10 matches with xG.
    • Frosinone scoring probability ≈77.5%, using 1.66 xG-for and 1.34 Napoli xG-against; 6 matches with xG.
    • 0, 1-0, or 2-0 Napoli result loses despite a high combined-goal environment; BTTS is not a total-goals proxy.
  3. Frosinone spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Massimiliano Alvini’s Frosinone profile is direct (0.86) and aggressive (8.93 PPDA), while Allegri’s Napoli is less aggressive (17.09 PPDA).
    • soccer_game_features: Napoli home win .4851, draw .2167, Frosinone away win .2982; lambdas are 2.12 home and 1.65 away.
    • Coverage clears: all feature flags true, six-match minimum xG sample; both teams have 20 rest days and no congestion flag.
    • Most likely loss: Napoli win by two or more; the model still gives Napoli a .4851 home-win probability.
  4. Frosinone +1 regular-time spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's nearby Napoli -1 is -113; reference only, while ProphetX supplies the placement contract.
    • Model lambdas are 2.12 Napoli and 1.65 Frosinone, a 0.47-goal home margin rather than a dominant projection.
    • Napoli winning by two or more is the most likely loss path; a one-goal Napoli win pushes rather than wins.
  5. Napoli spread NO 2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 78¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DC model: Napoli lambda 2.12, Frosinone lambda 1.65; P(Napoli wins by 3+) is about 14.1%, versus 22c YES / 78c NO at Kalshi.
    • Same-competition warehouse sample: 50 matches had only 3 wins by 3+ (6%); goal differences 0/1/2 supplied 28 of 50 results (56%).
    • Model-v-market comparison is self-referenced because Pinnacle posts -1.25, not this exact -2.5 rung; this is capped at LEAN.
  6. Total Goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • REFERENCE is incomplete. Under 3.5 is only 1.2x heavier than over; spread flow is balanced.
    • LEAN. The only strong signal is one total rung; no second market confirms the direction.

Questions

Who won Frosinone vs. Napoli?

Napoli won 3-0 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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