Updated
FinalBarclays Center · Brooklyn
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 18 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 83 |
| NY | 19 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 65 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAtlanta Dream to win 64¢
Why Third Quarter Run likes it: Atlanta owns a +6.7 season net rating versus New York's +3.8, widening to +10.1 versus +2.3 over the last 10.
Third Quarter RunUp 7% return this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · −21% return
- Atlanta Dream to win+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlanta owns a +6.7 season net rating versus New York's +3.8, widening to +10.1 versus +2.3 over the last 10.
- Efficiency mismatch: Atlanta's 90.0 defensive rating is the matchup's best unit, while New York's 96.1 defense only marginally offsets Atlanta's 96.7 offense.
- Pace is acceptable for the favorite: season pace is Atlanta 92.4 and New York 90.4; matchup model expects 91.64 pace and 173.9 points.
- The warehouse model, last stamped September 22, gives New York 50.8% at home and does not transparently quantify today's late availability changes.
- Atlanta Dream over 173.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opening total was 176.5; DraftKings cut three points to 173.5 while the pace signal stayed intact.
- Atlanta pace 92.4 plus New York pace 90.4 creates a 91.4-possession matchup.
- Both teams’ total profiles sit above league average: Atlanta 176.5 and New York 176.7 versus 174.2.
- The independent model projects 173.9, so this is a thin four-tenths-of-a-point projection edge.
- Atlanta Dream over 87.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Decision path: Liberty anchor OUT → upper-tier opponent → 2+ Liberty rotation absences → no back-to-back → Filter B/E.
- Breanna Stewart is listed OUT in the 4:20 PM live injury update; Satou Sabally and Elizabeth Balogun are also out.
- Atlanta projects for 89.1 points in the warehouse game model and averages 89.0 points on the road.
- The model is only 1.6 points above the 87.5 threshold; a small margin leaves little room for variance.
- Game total under 178.5+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- model total 173.9, 4.6 points below the exact 178.5 contract rung.
- Tempo: Atlanta remains faster seasonally (92.35 vs 90.36), but recent paces fell to 90.36 and 89.44.
- Efficiency: model uses 91.64 possessions with expected Liberty 92.58 and Dream 97.19 points per 100 possessions.
- Breanna Stewart is unresolved: warehouse lists Out while ESPN lists Day-To-Day; rotation uncertainty caps this at LEAN.
Questions
Who won Dream vs. Liberty?
The Dream won 83-65 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.