Updated
FinalMichelob ULTRA Arena · Las Vegas
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 23 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 85 |
| LV | 27 | 35 | 24 | 16 | 102 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 182.5 −110
Why Road Trip likes it: 96.0 + 91.3 season points per game is 187.3, 4.8 above the posted total.
Road TripUp 28% return this season · 24 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −36% return
- Game total over 182.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 40% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 96.0 + 91.3 season points per game is 187.3, 4.8 above the posted total.
- Combined season pace is 183.27 possessions, the fastest of the three inspected games.
- Indiana and Las Vegas rank at 56.3% and 55% in season effective field goal rate.
- Equal rest supplies no schedule edge, and postseason rotations may slow the game.
- Indiana Fever under 182.5 game total−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Last five Fever game totals: 152, 173, 170, 188, 202, average 177.0.
- Last five Aces game totals: 182, 168, 175, 191, 166, average 176.4.
- Indiana scored 66, 96, and 77 in its last three; Las Vegas posted sub-92 defensive ratings in four of five.
- The warehouse model projects 195.6 points, a massive conflict with the recent scoring trend.
- WNBA game total over 181.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Tree: A'ja Wilson is IN; Aliyah Boston is day-to-day and Caitlin Clark is probable, so no confirmed anchor-out subtraction.
- Aces are Tier 1; Indiana has Harris out and Boston uncertain, while Las Vegas is without Smith, Evans, and Latson.
- Both teams have three rest days; Indiana travels Minnesota to Las Vegas, while the Aces are home after Phoenix.
- Boston's lower-leg status remains unresolved close to tip; a late scratch would weaken Indiana's scoring side.
- A'ja Wilson player rebounds under 9.5−100%Lost
Taken at +112 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Grade 73/100; projection 8.5 rebounds is 10.7% below the 9.5 line.
- Wilson stayed under in 7 of her last 10 and 3 of her last 5 games.
- Her last-10 average is 8.0 rebounds; season average is 9.21 across 42 games.
- Season under rate is 22 of 42 (52.4%), below the preferred 55% baseline.
- Chelsea Gray player points under 12.5−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Grade 75/100; projection 11.0 points is 12% below the 12.5 line.
- Gray stayed under in 7 of her last 10 and 3 of her last 5 games.
- Season under rate is 28 of 44 (63.6%); her three 2026 meetings with Indiana finished 11, 9, and 10 points.
- Last-five form is only 3-of-5 under, so the edge is not a clean current streak.
- Chelsea Gray under 22.5 PRA−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 19.3 L10 PRA average is 14.2% below the 22.5 line.
- Matchup board projects −0.01 expected-FG impact; her 44% three-point diet faces −0.01 suppression.
- Gray is active on the game prop board and listed among the Aces starters in the official game preview.
- Her 21.8 L5 PRA average is only 3.1% below the line, and her last four-game average is 22.75.
Questions
Who won Fever vs. Aces?
The Aces won 102-85 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.