Updated
FinalCareFirst Arena · Washington
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 24 | 17 | 24 | 28 | 93 |
| WSH | 17 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 75 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAtlanta Dream spread −3 51¢
Why Third Quarter Run likes it: PROJECTION; model projects Atlanta 84.2, Washington 78.3: a 5.9-point margin versus the −3 rung.
Third Quarter RunUp 7% return this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-3 on this game · +15% return
- Atlanta Dream spread −3+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; model projects Atlanta 84.2, Washington 78.3: a 5.9-point margin versus the −3 rung.
- Atlanta's regular-season net rating is +7.0 versus Washington's +3.5; recent form widens that to +12.6 versus +3.5.
- Zone clash: Washington's expected eFG shift is −0.02, while Atlanta's is −0.00; Atlanta's defense suppresses the Mystics attack.
- Brionna Jones is confirmed OUT for Atlanta; the model may not fully capture the loss of interior offense.
- Atlanta Dream over 165.5 total+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 40% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined season scoring: Atlanta 91.3 PPG plus Washington 86.3 PPG (177.6).
- Preview pace is 92.32 for Atlanta and 92.27 for Washington; both teams project above 92 possessions.
- Season shooting is adequate on both sides: Washington 44.9% FG, Atlanta 44.3% FG.
- Atlanta and Washington are both rested, so there is no schedule-fatigue boost to the over.
- Washington Mystics under 82.5 team points+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
ReeveUp 45% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects Washington for 78.3 points, 4.2 below FanDuel's 82.5 team-total line.
- Atlanta allowed 73.2 points per game across its last five and 84.9 for the season.
- Washington scored 77 in the teams' September 26 meeting; Sonia Citron and Shakira Austin are listed out.
- Washington's last five scoring average is 92.0, including 101 and 110, so the recent offensive distribution is wide.
- Game total under 166.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 162.5, four points below DraftKings' 166.5.
- Atlanta's last-five defensive rating is 81.0; Washington's is 88.0.
- Current injury board lists Atlanta's Angel Reese and Brionna Jones out, with Washington's Sonia Citron and Shakira Austin out.
- Washington's last five games averaged 174.2 total points; Atlanta's averaged 169.0.
- Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics total over 164.5 points+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Path: Reese IN and Austin IN → opponent Tier 1/2 → depth compromised by Jones OUT, but no 2+ current rotation absences → both teams rested 6+ days → Filter E total routing.
- Season total profiles: Atlanta games average 175.8 points and Washington games average 166.7; 164.5 buys the total below Washington's own season scoring environment.
- Game 1 finished 92-77 (169 points); the prior postseason matchup cleared this line, and recent team-game totals include 170, 179, 187, 190, and 194.
- WNBA model projects only 162.5 points, directly opposing the recent-total case.
- Washington Mystics to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Washington’s current report lists no injuries; Atlanta’s Brionna Jones is out for the season.
- Atlanta is 9-1 over its last 10 with a +15.6 average margin; Washington is 8-2 at +8.1.
Show all 8 picks
- Kiki Iriafen over 9.5 rebounds+71%Won
Taken at −140 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP grade 75/100: clears the 70 fire bar with a qualifying edge.
- 9/10 L10 and 4/5 L5 over 9.5; recent averages are 11.3 and 11.0 rebounds.
- Model projects 11.0 rebounds, 15.8% above the 9.5 line; estimated 75% hit probability versus 58.3% implied.
- Full-season rate is 25/46 (54.3%), below the 55% preferred baseline.
- Game under 166.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: model total 162.5, four points below the exact 166.5 Kalshi rung.
- Atlanta's recent pace is 90.38 versus 92.32 season pace (−1.94); that recent slowdown should dictate tempo over Washington's push.
- Washington's recent pace is 93.06 versus 92.27 season pace (+0.79), but the combined model pace is only 91.28.
- Georgia Amoore is still listed day-to-day by the warehouse preview; the same-day web check did not independently resolve her status.
Questions
Who won Dream vs. Mystics?
The Dream won 93-75 on Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026.