Updated
FinalCollege Park Center · Arlington
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 26 | 19 | 29 | 19 | 7 | 100 |
| DAL | 23 | 27 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 108 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGolden State Valkyries over 156.5 total −112
Why Road Trip likes it: Combined season scoring: Dallas 89.4 PPG plus Golden State 82.2 PPG (171.6).
Road TripUp 28% return this season · 24 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −42% return
- Paige Bueckers over 19.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
3 modelsReeve, WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop Scanner +1Why 3 models like it
Reeve- Bueckers cleared 19.5 in 7 of her last 10, averaging 22.4 points.
- Season log shows 27 overs in 45 games; current 19.5 line is below her 20.24-point average.
- Golden State allowed only 70.0 points per game over its last 10 and owns an 81.2 season defensive rating.
WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop Scanner- 61% conservative Poisson-binomial estimate vs 51.5% FanDuel implied: +9.5 points.
- Pinnacle −123/−107 de-vigs to 51.6% over; the sharp spread is only 16 cents.
- The five-game scoring sample is small and shooting variance is wide.
Picks With Pink Grading System- 70% L10 hit rate (7/10) and 80% L5 hit rate (4/5).
- Four consecutive games over 19.5 entering this matchup.
- Minutes trend is down 3.0 from her season average, with 29.0 L5 minutes and 25 last game.
- Game total under 157.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsThird Quarter Run, Pace RiotWhy 2 models like it
Third Quarter Run- Projection: model totals 153.4 points at 85.27 expected pace, 4.1 below the quoted 157.5 rung.
- Golden State’s 81.2 recent defensive rating suppresses Dallas’s 101.3 recent offense; Dallas also allows 90.3 recent points-rating.
- Model vintage is September 25 and its validation MAE is 13.4 points; the 4.1-point projection gap is fragile.
Pace Riot- Model projects 153.4 points, 4.1 below the 157.5 market.
- Expected pace is only 85.27 possessions; Golden State's current pace is 85.8.
- Dallas averages a 172.3 total over its recent 10-game form and can force a faster game.
- Golden State Valkyries over 156.5 total+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 40% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined season scoring: Dallas 89.4 PPG plus Golden State 82.2 PPG (171.6).
- Preview pace is 89.72 for Dallas and 85.96 for Golden State; last-five pace rises to about 177 possessions combined.
- Dallas shoots 46.8% from the field and 34.6% from three; Golden State shoots 34.4% from three.
- Golden State allows only 75.3 PPG and Dallas allows 85.3 PPG, a meaningful defensive drag on the raw scoring baseline.
- Arike Ogunbowale over 3.5 assists+118%Won
Taken at +118 on FanDuel
WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerUp 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 52.5% conservative model versus 45.9% FanDuel implied: +6.6 points.
- Arike cleared 3.5 assists in four of her last five; that span averaged 4.4 assists.
- Pinnacle +116/−154 de-vigs to 43.3% over; FanDuel offers the slightly better +118.
- Assists depend on teammate shot conversion; the five-game sample is thin.
Questions
Who won Valkyries vs. Wings?
The Wings won 108-100 on Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026.