Updated
FinalClimate Pledge Arena · Seattle
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 20 | 27 | 27 | 103 |
| SEA | 12 | 30 | 21 | 28 | 91 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDallas Wings spread −6.5 56¢
Why WNBA Secret Sauce likes it: DFS path: Seattle anchor Ezi Magbegor OUT; Dallas anchor Alanna Smith OUT → Seattle Tier 4 at 8-35 → both benches have 2+ absences → Dallas has 2 rest days, so Filter A does not ban the road side.
WNBA Secret SauceUp 1% return this season · 307 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −55% return
- Dallas Wings–Seattle Storm game total under 173.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
2 modelsReeve, Pace RiotWhy 2 models like it
Reeve- Model total 165.0; current-season total SD 20.3 implies 66.2% under.
- Model projection is 8.5 points below the 173.5 market number.
- Dallas has scored 97, 87, and 86 in its last three games; efficient Wings shooting can beat the projection.
Pace Riot- Model total is 165.0, an 8.5-point gap below the posted 173.5.
- Seattle averages 75.0 points over its last five; its 78.56 last-five offensive rating is brutal.
- Dallas has scored 92.6 points per game over its last five, so one efficient Wings attack can threaten the under.
- Dallas Wings spread −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects Dallas 89.7-75.3, a 14.4-point margin; ProphetX offers −14.5 at +107.
- Dallas net rating is +5.2 versus Seattle's −8.5; Dallas offense 98.9 meets Seattle defense 97.1.
- Seattle's 88.6 offense faces Dallas defense at 93.7; matchup-adjusted expected pace is 93.13.
- Live state is not modeled: Dallas leads 36-19 in the incomplete second period, already 2.6 points above the projected margin.
- Dallas Wings @ Seattle Storm total under 173.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Third Quarter RunUp 63% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 165.0-point WNBA model projection is 8.5 points below the exact 173.5 rung (PROJECTION; model version wnba_winprob_v1).
- Model uses 93.13 expected possessions with adjusted ratings of 96.33 Dallas and 80.86 Seattle.
- Season net ratings are Dallas +4.4 versus Seattle −7.7; recent five-game net ratings were +15.1 and −15.9, respectively.
- The model's published validation MAE is 13.4 points; an 8.5-point projection gap can be absorbed by normal total variance.
- DAL @ SEA under 172.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Road TripUp 40% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring sums to 171.1 points: Dallas 89.1 PPG, Seattle 82.0.
- Recent team-total averages are 171.1 for Dallas and 169.3 for Seattle.
- Seattle has three rest days to Dallas's two; Dallas travels from Phoenix to Seattle after Monday's game.
- Seattle's 92.6 pace is high, creating extra-possession over risk.
- Under 172.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- DFS path: both primary frontcourt anchors are OUT → Seattle remains Tier 4 offensively at 82.0 points per game → both benches are depleted → no ≤1-day road-rest ban → Filter E total routing lands on the under despite the anchor-out over lean.
- The warehouse game model projects 165 total points, 7.5 below the Kalshi 172.5 threshold; Seattle's season offense is only 82.0 points per game.
- Seattle's Ezi Magbegor absence supports Dallas scoring, but Dallas's own Alanna Smith absence offsets part of that boost by weakening Seattle's defensive matchup.
- Both teams have meaningful frontcourt absences, and the intended anchor-out route can produce efficient replacement offense or extra pace.
- Dallas Wings spread −6.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- DFS path: Seattle anchor Ezi Magbegor OUT; Dallas anchor Alanna Smith OUT → Seattle Tier 4 at 8-35 → both benches have 2+ absences → Dallas has 2 rest days, so Filter A does not ban the road side.
- Dallas is 26-17 with a +4.4 net rating; Seattle is 8-35 with a −7.7 net rating, and the last-five net split is +15.06 Dallas versus −15.92 Seattle.
- Filter B/E identifies the Seattle frontcourt absence as the primary matchup edge; the spread is the secondary value-spread branch rather than a short-rest favorite play.
- Seattle is coming off a 21-point loss, activating the starters-ride blowout-backlash override and creating backdoor-cover risk.
Show all 8 picks
- Dallas Wings −8.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects Dallas 89.7, Seattle 75.3: 14.4-point margin.
- Current net ratings: Dallas +4.4 versus Seattle −7.7 across 43 games.
- Expected efficiencies favor Dallas: 96.33 away ORtg versus Seattle 80.86 home ORtg.
- The 68.1% cover estimate converts a 14.4-point projection using pooled 12.6-point margin volatility; spread calibration is uncertain.
- WNBA game total over 172.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 165.0; Kalshi’s 172.5 rung is a 7.5-point higher market reference.
- Seattle’s recent pace is 93.6 versus 92.6 season; Dallas is 91.08 versus 89.9, only modestly faster.
- Season efficiency: Dallas 98.8 offense/94.4 defense; Seattle 89.0 offense/96.7 defense, Seattle scoring is the drag.
- WNBA model validation MAE is 13.4 points; a 7.5-point projection gap is not a comfortable edge.
Questions
Who won Wings vs. Storm?
The Wings won 103-91 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.