Updated
FinalCapital One Arena · Washington
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 18 | 26 | 33 | 93 |
| WSH | 31 | 21 | 27 | 22 | 101 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 168.5 −112
Why Pace Riot likes it: Model projects 169.5 points, one above FanDuel's 168.5.
Pace RiotDown 12% this season · 52 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · −10% return
- Game total over 168.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 169.5 points, one above FanDuel's 168.5.
- Season scoring baselines total 172.6 points: Chicago 86.6, Washington 86.0.
- Chicago's defense is leaking: 98.1 season defensive rating, 115.3 and 118.3 in its last two.
- Chicago has seven players listed out, including Natasha Cloud; Georgia Amoore is day-to-day.
- Game total over 165.5 points+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Decision path: Mystics anchor Shakira Austin OUT → Chicago Tier 4 defense/opponent, 16, 27 with −4.3 net rating → seven Chicago absences thin both rotations → both teams have two rest days, no back-to-back → Filter B/E route to full-game OVER.
- Model total is 169.5, four points above this 165.5 contract threshold.
- Austin is out after averaging 17.2 points and 9.5 rebounds; her absence weakens Washington's interior defense and supports the anchor-out OVER route.
- Chicago's seven listed absences include Rickea Jackson, Azura Stevens, Natasha Cloud, Skylar Diggins, DiJonai Carrington, Aicha Coulibaly, and Morgan Maly; the depleted offense can sink the game total.
- WNBA game under 179.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- pace/efficiency baseline is 169.5 points; a conservative live-state adjustment puts the expected total near 175.0, 4.5 below this exact 179.5 rung.
- Washington is the likely tempo limiter: 89.74 recent pace vs 90.8 season and 90.37 pace EWMA; Chicago is faster, but its 91.4 recent pace is also below its 92.1 season mark.
- Efficiency read: Washington form offense 97.3 versus Chicago form defense 98.8; Chicago form offense 89.2 versus Washington form defense 94.0. The combined read remains below the rung.
- The live score is already 72 at 5:02 of Q2; sustained 4.8-points-per-elapsed-minute scoring would overwhelm the regression.
- Game total under 168.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Cheryl SnipesUp 4% over 53 picksWhy it likes it
- Fresh 4:00 PM availability: Washington loses Shakira Austin and Sonia Citron; Chicago has six rotation absences confirmed.
- Rebuilt fair total is 165.0; with 15-point total SD, Under 168.5 implies 59.2%.
- Both teams have two days rest and no back-to-back; the edge is availability-driven, not an invented travel penalty.
- Washington scored 110, 93, and 79 in its last three; replacement minutes could recover more offense than projected.
Questions
Who won Sky vs. Mystics?
The Mystics won 101-93 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.