Updated
Finalcrypto.com Arena · Los Angeles
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 15 | 11 | 20 | 30 | 76 |
| LA | 13 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 75 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWNBA game under 159.5 total points 52¢
Why Reeve likes it: Model total is 157.0, 2.5 points below the 159.5 contract line.
ReeveUp 7% return this season · 60 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +19% return
- Game over 158.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 40% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined season scoring is 169.6 points per game, 11.1 above the 158.5 ticket.
- Combined season pace index is 178.7: Los Angeles 92.7 and Golden State 86.0.
- Los Angeles shoots 46.4% from the field; Golden State makes 34.5% of threes.
- Golden State's season defense is strong at 87.1 defensive rating and could suppress Los Angeles.
- WNBA game under 159.5 total points+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
ReeveUp 45% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 157.0, 2.5 points below the 159.5 contract line.
- 2026 WNBA total scoring has a 20.3-point standard deviation; normal-tail fair under probability is 54.9%.
- Golden State's season total profile is 157.4, while the matchup model projects 86.84 possessions and 157 points.
- Los Angeles' own total profile is 179.0, and its last three totals were 168, 189, and 174.
- Game total under 159.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 157.0, two-and-a-half points below the posted 159.5.
- Golden State’s last-10 pace is 85.6 with an 81.2 defensive rating.
- Golden State’s last five game totals averaged 148.2; the low-tempo side is the matchup’s control.
- Los Angeles averages a 168.3 total in its last 10 and owns a 92.2 last-10 pace.
- Game total over 154.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Anchor path: Sparks primary interior anchor Cameron Brink is OUT; route B/E favors a full-game OVER.
- Opponent caliber: Golden State is Tier 1 at 31-12 with +8.4 net rating; Los Angeles is Tier 4 at 16-27 with −5.0 net rating.
- Model path: projected total is 157 points, while the Kalshi threshold is 154.5.
- Golden State has four listed absences, including Gabby Williams and Janelle Salaun; depth loss can reduce pace or offensive continuity.
- Game under 157.5 total points+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; GS recent pace is 85.6 over five games versus 86.0 season, while LA is 92.1 versus 92.7.
- GS form: 91.6 ORtg and 81.2 DRtg; LA form: 91.6 ORtg and 91.4 DRtg.
- GS is the likely tempo controller because its slower recent pace should pull LA below its 92.1 possession profile.
- Dearica Hamby is PROBABLE, not confirmed; her return could improve Los Angeles scoring and change the rotation.
Questions
Who won Valkyries vs. Sparks?
The Valkyries won 76-75 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.