Updated
FinalTarget Center · Minneapolis
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 13 | 19 | 9 | 25 | 66 |
| MIN | 32 | 30 | 14 | 10 | 86 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWNBA game under 182.5 total points 47¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Projection / LEAN: Indiana's last-five pace is 91.08 versus 92.9 season pace; Minnesota is 90.88 versus 91.3.
Shot ClockEven this season · 265 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · +1% return
- Game total over 183.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 193.8 points, 10.3 above the posted total.
- Indiana's last-10 offense is 109.1 ORTG with a 92.6 pace; Minnesota's recent defense is softer than season form.
- Season scoring profiles run 187.2 average total for Indiana games and 175.0 for Minnesota; the matchup model expects both offenses to clear 94 points.
- Minnesota's 92.7 season defensive rating is elite and can drag the game below projection.
- Game total over 182.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Decision path: Collier IN; Boston IN; Tier-1 opponent; Minnesota's 2+ rotation absences; both teams on 2 days rest; Minnesota coming off a 19-point loss → Filter E over route.
- The WNBA model projects 193.8 total points, 11.3 above Kalshi's 182.5 threshold.
- Indiana averages 96.7 points and its 2026 team total profile is 187.2; the Fever's pace is 92.9 possessions.
- The model is timestamped September 23, while Clark's back status was updated close to tip and remains probable rather than confirmed.
- WNBA game under 182.5 total points+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection / LEAN: Indiana's last-five pace is 91.08 versus 92.9 season pace; Minnesota is 90.88 versus 91.3.
- Tempo read: Indiana is slightly likelier to dictate, but both recent pace samples point to roughly 91 possessions; this is pace/efficiency, not rest or back-to-back.
- Season efficiency blend: Indiana offense versus Minnesota defense is 98.75 points/100; Minnesota offense versus Indiana defense is 99.15.
- Caitlin Clark is day-to-day/probable with a back issue; an unresolved rotation-changing status caps this at LEAN.
- Game total under 183.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Cheryl SnipesUp 4% over 53 picksWhy it likes it
- 179.2-point projection: 60% recent 178.0 total environment, 40% current-form efficiency at 180.9.
- Recent pace averaged 89.4 for Indiana and 93.3 for Minnesota; both have two rest days, not back-to-back.
- Olivia Miles is officially Out at 4:30 PM; the 9/22 matchup already had her at zero minutes and totaled 173.
- Caitlin Clark remains Day-To-Day/probable; a full 33-plus-minute outing can lift Indiana pace and scoring.
Questions
Who won Fever vs. Lynx?
The Lynx won 86-66 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.