Updated
FinalMortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 32 | 33 | 12 | 23 | 100 |
| PHX | 18 | 18 | 24 | 22 | 82 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 174.5 −108
Why Pace Riot likes it: Model total: 183.8, a 9.3-point cushion above 174.5.
Pace RiotDown 12% this season · 52 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-1 on this game · +56% return
- Game total over 174.5+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
3 modelsPace Riot, Shot Clock +1Why 3 models like it
Pace Riot- Model total: 183.8, a 9.3-point cushion above 174.5.
- Pace baseline is 179.7 possessions; neither team is on a back-to-back.
- Recent 10-game scoring environments are only 172.4 for Aces games and 174.0 for Mercury games.
Shot Clock- Phoenix recent pace 91.0 vs 87.4 season (+3.6); Aces 89.5 vs 88.7 (+0.8), so Phoenix is the tempo driver.
- Aces 103.9 offense vs Mercury 94.4 defense; Mercury 96.8 offense vs Aces 88.9 defense.
- Only 8:13 has elapsed; Phoenix's 64.7 first-quarter offensive rating can regress sharply.
Cheryl Snipes- Own rebuilt projection is 178.4 points; normal approximation with 15-point total SD gives 60.3% over probability.
- Recent three-game team totals were 178.0 for Las Vegas and 175.7 for Phoenix, above the 174.5 market line in the matchup context.
- Phoenix's season totals profile is only 171.7 points, and its recent defense averaged a 100.2 defensive rating.
- Game total over 174.5 points+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Anchor IN → Phoenix Tier 4 versus Las Vegas Tier 1 → both benches have 2+ listed outs → no back-to-back; Filter G routes toward Las Vegas scoring, and matchup total routes OVER.
- Model projects 183.8 total points, 9.3 above the 174.5 Kalshi rung.
- Las Vegas averages 91.1 points with a 102.4 offensive rating; Phoenix allows 98.9 points per 100 possessions.
- Both primary anchors, A'ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas, are not listed out; the anchor-out Over trigger does not fire.
- Las Vegas Aces over 92.5 team points+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Anchor IN → Las Vegas Tier 1 versus Phoenix Tier 4 → Phoenix has 2+ creator/depth losses → no back-to-back; Filter G routes away from Phoenix spread/ML and to the Aces team-total Over.
- The matchup model projects 95.7 Las Vegas points, 3.2 above the 92.5 contract line.
- Phoenix's season defense is 98.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, while Las Vegas owns a 102.4 offensive rating.
- Las Vegas also has three listed outs, including NaLyssa Smith and Dana Evans, reducing bench margin.
- Phoenix Mercury spread +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Cheryl SnipesUp 4% over 53 picksWhy it likes it
- Own blended projection: Las Vegas by 7.7 points; 56.5% Phoenix-cover probability with 11-point margin SD.
- Season and last-three efficiency/pace inputs produce a 178.4 total and a narrower margin than the market handicap.
- Phoenix has 3 rest days versus Las Vegas 2; both played 3 games in the trailing 7 days, with neither on a back-to-back.
- Las Vegas owns the stronger season profile: +5.4 net rating versus Phoenix at −3.6.
Questions
Who won Aces vs. Mercury?
The Aces won 100-82 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.