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Updated

FinalMohegan Sun Arena · Uncasville
Tempo
81-95
Sun
Score by period
Team1234T
TOR2016212481
CON2315312695

Top model pick, graded

Won

Connecticut Sun to win −142

Why Reeve likes it: Model home win probability 63.9%; fair price approximately −177 versus FanDuel −142.

ReeveUp 7% return this season · 60 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-2 on this game · +19% return

  1. Connecticut Sun to win
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on FanDuel

    ReeveUp 45% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model home win probability 63.9%; fair price approximately −177 versus FanDuel −142.
    • Toronto's seven listed outs include 20.8, 18.6, 12.3, 11.0 and 8.5 ppg players.
    • Both teams have two days' rest and neither is on a back-to-back.
    • The model snapshot is dated 9/23 and may not fully incorporate today's extensive absences.
  2. Game total under 169.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 167.1 points, 2.4 below the posted 169.5.
    • Both teams play near 90 possessions recently, but neither is accelerating: 90.32 and 90.14 L5 pace.
    • Connecticut's offense cratered to 72.4 rating over its last eight; Toronto's L5 net rating is −26.22.
    • Toronto's defense is leaking 104.0 points per 100 possessions for the season.
  3. Game total over 164.5 points
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor branch: Brittney Griner is confirmed OUT at 3:20 PM; the current preview/lineup feed lists Temi Fagbenle OUT for Toronto.
    • Opponent caliber: both teams are Tier 4 by record (Connecticut 10-33, Toronto 11-32), avoiding elite-opponent star-scaling.
    • Depth branch: the current preview lists eight Connecticut and seven Toronto absences, creating 2+ rotation-piece uncertainty on both sides.
    • Season scoring is weak: Connecticut averages 78.5 points and Toronto 85.8, with both teams below 80 points per game over their last 10.
  4. Connecticut Sun wins by over 1.5 points
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent caliber: this is a Tier 4 matchup, with Connecticut 10-33 and Toronto 11-32; no Tier 1/2 opponent adjustment is needed.
    • Depth branch: both teams have at least two rotation absences, but Connecticut retains the home-court setting and the stronger season defensive profile.
    • Rest/travel: both teams have two rest days and no back-to-back; Toronto's prior game was at Chicago while Connecticut's was at Washington.
    • The projected 2.7-point margin is narrow; a one-possession finish loses this contract.
  5. Game over 179.5 total pointsFavorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • expected total 172, 174, roughly 5.5, 7.5 points below the 179.5 rung.
    • Toronto is the tempo pusher: 94.16 L5 pace versus 91.78 season (+2.38); Connecticut’s L5 pace is 90.32 versus 90.51.
    • Efficiency read: Toronto 86.7 offense versus Connecticut 102.2 defense; Connecticut 83.9 offense versus Toronto 105.3 defense.
    • Warehouse and ESPN checks agree on listed absences, but final minute allocations and late lineup changes remain unknown.
  6. Toronto Tempo–Connecticut Sun game total under 167.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Connecticut and Toronto's last-5 pace is 90.32 and 90.14; both coaches have maintained a controlled tempo.
    • WNBA model projects 167.1 points; the qualifying ProphetX rung is under 167.5, just above that projection.
    • Last-10 offensive ratings are only 83.9 (Connecticut) and 86.7 (Toronto), supporting half-court scoring pressure.
    • The projection edge is only 0.4 points at this rung; ordinary shooting variance dominates.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Game total over 169.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Cheryl SnipesUp 4% over 53 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 172.5 projected total; 15-point SD implies 58% over 169.5.
    • Cross-match totals: 171.4 from last-10 form, 173.5 season form, 175.1 last-five form.
    • Both teams have two rest days and no back-to-back; clean last-five team-minute checks were 198, 202.
    • Toronto workload decay is visible: Kiki Rice TS delta −0.10 and Maria Conde −0.21.

Questions

Who won Tempo vs. Sun?

The Sun won 95-81 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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