Aces vs. Fever: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 4:45 PM PST

FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis

Aces

89-99

Fever

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	26	17	17	29	89
IND	18	30	24	27	99

Top model pick, graded

Won

Indiana Fever −1.5 −105

Why Road Trip likes it: ~1,500-mile Phoenix-to-Indiana trip for Las Vegas versus ~500 miles for Indiana's return from Minnesota.

Road TripUp 28% return this season · 24 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-4 on this game · −19% return

Game total under 183.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
2 modelsPace Riot, Cheryl Snipes
Why 2 models like it
Pace Riot
- Recent pace is 180.74 across both teams’ last-five inputs, below the 183.5 total.
- Fever pace fell to 90.18 over five; Aces pace is only 90.56.
- The independent model projects 195.6 points, a major disagreement with the trend read.
Cheryl Snipes
- Recent-five efficiency matchup projects 179.7 points: Las Vegas 95.6, Indiana 84.1, at 90.4 pace.
- Season-efficiency matchup projects 183.9; blending recent efficiency, season efficiency, and totals profiles gives 181.5.
- Pinnacle's sharp reference is 183 at −110/−110, a 50% devigged under baseline; the market may already price the matchup.
Indiana Fever −1.5
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 40% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- ~1,500-mile Phoenix-to-Indiana trip for Las Vegas versus ~500 miles for Indiana's return from Minnesota.
- Both teams have two days of rest and no back-to-back; the edge is travel direction and home court, not rest quantity.
- Indiana scores 96.0 points per game at a 92.9 pace, versus Las Vegas at 91.3 points and 90.4 pace.
- Equal five-day gaps between games reduce the travel effect; this is not a rest mismatch.
Game total over 182.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Anchor path: A'ja Wilson is active; Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark are probable, so the frontcourt-injury Over filter is not forced.
- Opponent path: both teams were +5.7 or better in 2026 regular-season net rating; Game 1 then produced 187 points.
- Rest/travel path: both have two rest days and no back-to-back; the Fever return home after the 9/27 road game, while Las Vegas travels east.
- Las Vegas has three listed outs, including NaLyssa Smith and Dana Evans; bench depth or role changes could reduce efficiency.
Game total under 185.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Projected total: 180, 181 points, roughly 4.5, 5.5 below the exact 185.5 rung.
- Aces recent-five pace is 90.6 versus 89.9 over the recent form window; Fever is 90.2 versus 93.0.
- Efficiency blend uses Aces 102.6/96.9 and Fever 104.0/97.9 season ORtg/DRtg, pointing below the rung.
- Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston are probable, not confirmed; a late status change can alter the rotation and total.
A'ja Wilson under 10.5 rebounds
+85%Won
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- L10 under 8/10 (80%); L5 under 4/5 (80%).
- L10 average is 9.0 rebounds versus the 10.5 line, a 14.3% projection gap.
- Season under rate is 28/43 (65.1%); workload is stable at 31.6 L10 minutes.
- Wilson grabbed 16 rebounds in the previous meeting, the clearest immediate over path.
Jackie Young over 6.5 assists
−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- L10 over 6/10 (60%); L5 over 4/5 (80%), including four straight clears.
- L10 average is 7.7 assists versus the 6.5 line, an 18.5% projection gap.
- Stable role: 31.8 L10 minutes and 32.4 L5 minutes; no current Young injury row was found.
- Season over rate is 24/46 (52.2%), below the preferred 55% baseline.