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FinalChase Center · San Francisco
Wings
73-77
Valkyries
Score by period
Team1234T
DAL1925151473
GS1423172377

Top model pick, graded

Won

Dallas Wings +8.5 −112

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Model projects Golden State by only 2.1 points (77.8-75.7); +8.5 gives a 6.4-point cushion.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 17% return this season · 89 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-5 on this game · −18% return

  1. Game total over 159.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    3 modelsRoad Trip, Pace Riot +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Road Trip
    • Season scoring averages total 171.6 points: Dallas 89.4, Golden State 82.2.
    • Combined season pace is 88.0: Dallas 89.9 and Golden State 86.1.
    • Golden State allows only 75.3 points per game with an 87.1 defensive rating.
    Pace Riot
    • L5 game totals: Dallas 185.6, Golden State 168.4; 159.5 is below both recent baselines.
    • Dallas L5 offense is 104.1 with a 105.0 defensive rating; that defensive collapse creates extra scoring.
    • The WNBA model projects only 153.5 points, a direct six-point warning against the over.
    Shot Clock
    • Pace: Dallas's recent five averaged 89.1 possessions versus Golden State's 87.8; Dallas's 89.9 season pace should set tempo.
    • Efficiency blend projects about 186 points per 100 possessions at an 88.5-possession pace: 164.5 total.
    • Awak Kuier was probable/GTD with a wrist issue; she played 29 minutes last game, but final status was unresolved.
  2. Dallas Wings +8.53 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    3 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Reeve +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Model projects Golden State by only 2.1 points (77.8-75.7); +8.5 gives a 6.4-point cushion.
    • Dallas owns a +3.9 season net rating versus Golden State's +8.3, not an eight-point neutral gap.
    • DraftKings moved from −7.5 to −8.5 toward Golden State, opposing the model and creating mixed market signals.
    Reeve
    • 61% fair probability from a 4.4-point current home/away matchup margin and 14.83-point league margin SD.
    • Dallas has 8.5 points of market cushion despite the conservative split-based projection.
    • Dallas is without Alanna Smith; Golden State lists Gabby Williams, Janelle Salaun, Cecilia Zandalasini, and Iliana Rupert out.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • WNBA model projects Golden State 77.8, Dallas 75.7: Dallas is +8.5 against a 2.1-point expected deficit.
    • Dallas covered +8.5 in 9 of its last 10 games and 38 of 46 this season (82.6%).
    • Golden State's season defense allows 76.2 points per game, and its home-court edge is meaningful.
  3. Paige Bueckers over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 17% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30.9 season PRA baseline versus 27.5 posted line.
    • 32.2 PRA average across her last five games; cleared 27.5 in four of five.
    • 26.2% season usage with Dallas missing Azzi Fudd and Alysha Clark.
    • Golden State matchup carries a −0.04 expected eFG impact for Bueckers.
  4. Janelle Salaun over 11.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 10.5 points: over −125/under +100 de-vigs to 52.6% over.
    • Season 12.7 PPG adjusted by recent minutes produces a Poisson mean near 11.9.
    • Model probability for 12 or more points is approximately 54.5% versus FanDuel +100's 50%.
    • Recent five-game scoring average is only 10.2 points, below the minutes-adjusted season baseline.
  5. Veronica Burton under 6.5 assists
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 5.5 assists: over −147/under +117 de-vigs to 43.6% under.
    • Season 5.7 APG Poisson baseline gives approximately 65.5% for 6 or fewer assists.
    • DraftKings −148 implies 59.7%; modeled probability creates approximately 5.8 percentage points of edge.
    • Standard Poisson is a fallback proxy, not a full matchup-specific Poisson-binomial model.

Questions

Who won Wings vs. Valkyries?

The Valkyries won 77-73 on Friday, Oct 2, 2026.

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