Updated
FinalBarclays Center · Brooklyn
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 21 | 16 | 19 | 15 | 71 |
| NY | 26 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 87 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNew York Liberty +2.5 −105
Why Road Trip likes it: Liberty are home after the teams reversed venues from Minnesota on 9/27; Minnesota must travel east.
Road TripUp 28% return this season · 24 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-0 on this game · +91% return
- Game total under 174.5 points+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
2 modelsReeve, Shot ClockWhy 2 models like it
Reeve- Model total: 169.9 points, 4.6 below DraftKings' 174.5 line.
- Model-derived fair probability: 60.8%; fair odds −155.
- WNBA total model validation MAE is 13.4 points; the normal-tail conversion adds estimation uncertainty.
Shot Clock- Minnesota’s last-five pace is 92.08 versus 91.3 season pace (+0.78); New York is 90.28 versus 90.3 (−0.02), so Minnesota is the likelier tempo driver.
- Blended recent/season matchup efficiencies: Minnesota offense versus Liberty defense projects about 94.0 points per 100 possessions.
- Jonquel Jones remains day-to-day in the warehouse feed; she started Game 1, but her current availability is unresolved.
- Game total under 174.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
2 modelsPace Riot, Cheryl SnipesWhy 2 models like it
Pace Riot- Model total is 169.9, 4.6 points below the posted 174.5.
- Last-10 average totals are 167.1 for Minnesota and 167.9 for New York.
- Both teams have five-plus rest days, so fatigue is not helping the under.
Cheryl Snipes- 170.7 projected total: 40% recent postseason totals (NY 168.4, MIN 171.0), 30% last-10 form (167.9/167.1), 30% season offense-defense blend (175.4).
- Pinnacle's sharp reference is 173.5 at −108/−112, devigging to 50.4% for the under; FanDuel offers 174.5 at the same under price.
- The current WNBA-sourced report lists only Kosu out and no Liberty injuries, but the warehouse injury snapshot still carries older Liberty statuses; a late availability change would invalidate the blend.
- New York Liberty +2.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Road TripUp 40% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Liberty are home after the teams reversed venues from Minnesota on 9/27; Minnesota must travel east.
- Both teams have two rest days, so the edge is venue/travel rather than a rest-day advantage.
- Minnesota's season net rating is +7.8 versus New York's +3.2, but New York gets the full +2.5 home cushion.
- Minnesota's 4.6-point net-rating advantage is the strongest underlying number in the matchup.
Questions
Who won Lynx vs. Liberty?
The Liberty won 87-71 on Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026.