FinalSignal Iduna Park · Dortmund
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| WERD | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| BD | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWerder Bremen +1.5 52¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-6 on this game · +17% return
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Long Tail PairsWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Model lambdas 1.98 + 0.79 imply 70.0% for 0-3 goals, about 16 points above the 54¢ Kalshi cost.
- Pinnacle’s 3.5-goal reference leans under (-116), agreeing directionally with the projection.
- The roughly 16-point model/venue gap is unusually large; model calibration or unpriced lineup news could explain it.
Long Tail Pairs- Werder coach Daniel Thioune's official preview stresses resilience, physical duels, counter control and space between the lines; no all-out pace mandate.
- Features cover 10 matches: lambda_home 1.98 plus lambda_away 0.79 equals 2.76 expected goals against a 3.5 threshold.
- No confirmed XI is posted; official news confirms absences but not the actual starting lineups.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- Bundesliga projection / LEAN: Dortmund scores 80.7% (λ≈1.64); Bremen scores 64.3% (λ≈1.03), each from 10 xG matches.
- Asymmetric lean: Dortmund's attack is strong, while Bremen's 1.07 oppadj xGF faces Dortmund's 0.99 oppadj xGA.
- Bremen's 64.3% scoring probability is not an extreme weak-attacker profile; one Bremen goal loses immediately.
Number Earned- Model BTTS-No probability is 52.6%; fair line is approximately -111 versus DraftKings +110.
- Dortmund’s opponent-adjusted home xGA is 0.99, while the model’s away scoring lambda is 0.79.
- Werder’s away xG is 1.34 per match and its recent away attack can produce one goal.
- Werder Bremen +1.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days - Over 1.5 1H goals scored+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bundesliga sample: 52 of 139 goals in 33 recent fixtures came by minute 45, a 37.4% first-half share.
- Full ladder tail sum is 3.09 goals; the measured split implies 1.16 first-half goals and 1.93 second-half goals.
- The 1H over-1.5 quote is 43.5% mid; reconciled P(1H over 1.5) is about 32.3%.
- The 37.4% split uses 33 fixtures; fixture-level variance can overwhelm the league estimate.
- Werder Bremen spread +1.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days - Borussia Dortmund spread NO 1.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG inputs: Dortmund 1.82 xGF / 0.99 xGA; Bremen 1.07 xGF / 1.46 xGA; Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.98 and 0.79.
- Bundesliga 2026-27 sample: home margin ≥2 occurred 14 of 36 matches (38.9%); mass at margins 0/1/2 was 7/36, 5/36, and 4/36.
- Only 10 xG matches per side; the qualified sample is real but still thin.
Show all 10 picks
- Borussia Dortmund wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Borussia Dortmund; model key 1-0 is the contract “Borussia Dortmund wins 1-0.”
- Starting XIs were not posted at the 8:37 AM PDT read; late availability can shift exact-score mass.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted blend gives Dortmund 1.64 goals and Bremen 1.03, for a computed expected total of 2.67.
- Kalshi ladder midpoints imply at least 3.26 expected goals through the 5.5-goal rung; Over 3.5 raw YES was 0.42, fraction regime.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, below the 12-game top-band marker; sampling variance is meaningful.
- Borussia Dortmund spread NO 2.5+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Dortmund 1.82 for / 0.99 against; Bremen 1.07 for / 1.46 against; 10 xG matches each.
- 36 same-season Bundesliga finals: 24/36 finished within two goals; 10/36 were home wins by 3+ goals.
- Thirty-six matches are a thin, non-matchup-specific sample and include several extreme scorelines.
- Draw+400%Won
Taken at +400 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals are Dortmund 1.98 and Werder 0.79, leaving a live low-scoring draw path.
- Dortmund home form is 9-0-1 with a 26-7 goal record.
Questions
Who won Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund won 2-2 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.