FinalRheinEnergieStadion · Cologne
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1–2Final
FC Köln
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BM | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| KÖL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFC Köln spread −0.5 50¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-5 on this game · −16% return
- FC Köln spread −0.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Fair Price PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- Only 10 xG games per side makes this MODERATE rather than DEEP coverage; lambdas may be misspecified.
Fair Price Pairs- Pinnacle also showed FC Köln -0.5 at +100; reference only.
- LEAN one-leg ticket: the model's largest single loss path is a draw, which loses this -0.5 spread.
- The 5.06-point gap is a lean rather than a large edge; soccer result variance dominates.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX TouchlineUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pillar 1/3: Blessin's press (12.54 PPDA, 53.7% field tilt) beats Wagner's 16.11/51.6, favoring Gladbach's pressure and style control.
- Wagner's measured 4-2-3-1 has recent structural and set-piece lapses; Köln's confirmed XI lacks both starting strikers Ache and Dallinga.
- Venue xG: Köln home xG-for 1.89 versus Gladbach away xG-against 1.83 across 36/37 prior venue matches.
- Most likely loss: Wagner stabilizes Köln's defensive structure and switches, turning home pressure into a narrow Köln win.
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both confirmed XIs have 11 starters; their lineup attacking-xG totals are 2.15 for Köln and 2.71 for Gladbach, 4.86 combined.
- Gladbach return Isac Lidberg in the XI after his Sep. 19 indirect-card absence; his current club sample carries 0.74 xG/90.
- Additional confirmed attacking contributors include Hugo Bolin at 0.52 xG/90 and Köln's Saïd El Mala at 0.49 xG/90.
- Most likely loss: the match produces three or fewer goals despite the attacking-XI signal.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Reconciled 1H mean is 1.27; clipped 1H ladder fits near-Poisson/NB mean ≈1.54.
- At mean 1.27, reconciled P(Over 1.5 1H) ≈36.3% versus Kalshi 43.5%, a 7.2-point mismatch.
- The 2H total ladder is one-sided and discarded, so no direct second-half confirmation exists.
- Match total over 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas total 4.08 imply approximately 58% for 4+ goals.
- Adjacent sharp reference is Pinnacle over 3.0 at -110, directionally consistent; exact 3.5 remains venue self-reference.
- The projection-versus-price gap exceeds 15 points; model misspecification or late team news could explain it.
- FC Köln −0.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-11 5:44:35 PDT; no fill-rung issue applies to this one-leg ticket.
- A draw loses the -0.5 spread; most likely loss is 1-1 or another result without a FC Köln win.
Show all 8 picks
- Both Teams To Score+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FC Köln scoring read is 84.8% (λ 1.89 from oppadj xGF 1.69 vs Gladbach xGA 2.08).
- Borussia Mönchengladbach scoring read is 79.3% (λ 1.57 from oppadj xGF 1.40 vs Köln xGA 1.75); this is a symmetric both-sides-score case, not a total-goals proxy.
- The multiplication assumes limited dependence between scoring events; game state, an early red card, or tactical shifts can invalidate it.
- FC Köln spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Same-season Bundesliga sample: 43 finals had home goal differences 0:9, +1:6, +2:4, and +3+:11, supporting a lumpy rather than smooth ladder.
- no independent exact -1.5 handicap was posted; Pinnacle's -0.5 is a different rung and was excluded.
- Self-referenced Kalshi price, not an independent sharp exact-rung reference; this is capped at LEAN.
Questions
Who won Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Köln?
FC Köln won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.