FinalWWK Arena · Augsburg
FC Bayern München
2–2Final
FC Augsburg
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BM | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| AUG | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFC Augsburg spread +2.5 52¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 11-4 on this game · +55% return
- Total goals under 4.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsXI Delta, Two Nil +2Why 4 models like it
XI Delta- 4.19 combined xG rate (1.73 Augsburg + 2.46 Bayern) implies about 59% under 4.5 via Poisson.
- Confirmed XIs retain the regular goalkeepers and core defensive structure; no late keeper or back-line shock is present.
- A 4.19-goal baseline is not low; four goals leaves no margin for a fifth.
Two Nil- Opponent-adjusted xG arithmetic projects 3.34 goals versus approximately 4.12 from the complete Kalshi over-goals ladder.
- The match is live at 1-0 in the 39th minute; four more goals would lose the under.
Long Haul- Projection baseline: lambda_home 1.02 plus lambda_away 3.28 gives a 4.30-goal mean; the under 4.5 rung is the only in-band liquid total.
- Pinnacle also shows under 4.5 at +105; reference only, not the placement venue.
- Most likely loss path is five or more goals; there is no push at 4.5.
Deep Book- ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-10-10T03:50:59-07:00. The $300 availability gate passes; price band passes.
- Starting XIs are not posted. Augsburg has 13 players sidelined and Bayern 5; late personnel is unknown.
- FC Augsburg spread +2.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Half Goal Pairs - FC Augsburg under 0.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI excludes Uchenna Ogundu (0.43 xG/90), Steve Mounié (0.37), and Anton Kade (0.45).
- Augsburg lambda 1.02 → 0.59 after subtracting Ogundu's 0.43 xG/90 share.
- Repricing passed: last FCA1 change 2026-10-10T12:36:54Z; confirmed XI observed 2026-10-10T12:37:35Z.
- The player-xG timestamps are older, and first-choice status for the absent attackers is not independently confirmed.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The full-match ladder fits 4.72 goals from five live rungs; its 0.5 rung was discarded as one-sided.
- Recent Bundesliga event data: 52 of 143 recorded goals arrived by minute 45, a 36.4% first-half share.
- That split maps the full ladder to a 1H mean of 1.72 and P(over 1.5 1H) near 51.3%; the 1H quote is 63.5%.
- The event feed records 143 goals versus 141 in final score totals across the 37-match sample.
- Under 4.5 Total Goals+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Augsburg 1.59 for / 1.92 against; Bayern 2.31 for / 0.87 against.
- ProphetX's complete total ladder lists only 4.5; no adjacent rung or BTTS market exists for this event.
- Under loses at five or more; the projected five-plus tail remains about 43%, with Bayern's 3.28 away lambda driving upside.
- FC Bayern München spread NO 2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; λ Augsburg 1.02 and λ Bayern 3.28; independent cross-check gives about 56.5% that Bayern do not win by 3+.
- Current-season Bundesliga sample: 21.6% zero-margin, 29.7% one-goal, 16.2% two-goal, 32.4% three-plus margins across 37 matches.
- Bayern can clear the line with a three-goal win; the model's 1-3 and 0-3 scorelines alone total about 16.1%.
Show all 11 picks
- FC Augsburg +2.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Augsburg's 3-4-2-1 drops into a compact 5-4-1/5-2-3, blocking central lanes and forcing opponents wide.
- Augsburg's direct second-ball and wide-transition plan is specifically suited to keeping a possession-heavy favorite from separating.
- Bayern's Kompany system attacks through a 3-2-5 and aggressive press, but that creates a game-control rather than automatic margin edge.
- Bayern's full projected attacking core is in the warehouse lineup, and an early goal could force Augsburg out of its block.
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model projects 4.30 total expected goals and approximately 37.9% for four or fewer goals under a Poisson translation.
- The 30¢ executable No price implies only 30%, creating roughly an 8-point model gap.
- Bayern allowed only 8 goals across its last 10 away matches; Augsburg allowed 14 across its last 10 home matches.
- Bayern's modeled away scoring mean is 3.28, so a four-goal Bayern performance alone loses.
- Match both teams to score No−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bayern conceded 8 goals in its last 10 away matches; Augsburg's 1.73 home xG is below the model's 2.13 allowed baseline.
- Bayern's key departures include Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Joshua Kimmich, reducing attacking continuity.
- The exchange price leaves roughly a 4-point model probability gap after the quoted contract cost.
- Augsburg scored 22 goals in its last 10 home matches, including a 2-1 win at Bayern in the last meeting.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Augsburg scoring read ≈70.8%: 1.59 opp-adjusted xG-for versus Bayern's 0.87 opp-adjusted xG-against; 10 xG matches.
- Bayern scoring read ≈87.9%: 2.31 opp-adjusted xG-for versus Augsburg's 1.92 opp-adjusted xG-against; 10 xG matches.
- The independent sharp reference disagrees: Pinnacle's -223 YES/+184 NO devigs to about 33.8% NO, so the model's edge is only about 1.8 points against that baseline.
- FC Bayern München spread NO at 1.5+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles inputs λ Augsburg 1.02, λ Bayern 3.28; cross-check gives Bayern by 2+ at 63.2%.
- Kalshi's 68¢ YES price implies a 4.8-point higher Bayern-2+ probability than the cross-check.
- Current-season Bundesliga sample: 37 finals, home-minus-away goal difference 0 at 21.6%, +1 at 13.5%, and -1 at 16.2%.
- Bayern can convert its 3.28-goal rate into a two-goal win; one late goal turns a likely NO into a loss.
Questions
Who won FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.