FinalStadion An der Alten Försterei · Berlin
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELVE | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal Goals over 2.5 41¢
Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Current-XI attacking xG is 3.98 versus 5.40 for the usual-XI baselines, a 1.42 aggregate reduction.
Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-7 on this game · +23% return
- Elversberg to win−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
4 modelsCoaches Corner, Low Tide Line +2Why 4 models like it
Coaches Corner- Union’s new Lustrinelli identity is high-pressing and possession-centric, with the club warning of early teething problems.
- Wagner’s Elversberg is built to bait an aggressive press, compress into a compact mid-block, then attack space in rapid transitions.
- Union’s home press can win the ball high and turn Elversberg’s buildup into repeated dangerous chances.
Low Tide Line- Directional coherence: projection and cohort favor Elversberg; Kalshi and ProphetX exchange prices moved toward Elversberg, while Pinnacle is the dissenting reference.
- Pinnacle does not confirm the projection: Elversberg lengthened from +184 to +187 while Union shortened toward +150.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Elversberg leads the form sample 3-1-1 to Union Berlin's 1-3-1.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Elversberg 1.58 to 1.26, and Elo favors Elversberg 1643 to 1471.
- The model is based on only 10 xG-form matches per side and is not independently calibrated.
Number Earned- 45.9% warehouse-model away-win probability versus Kalshi's 35¢ contract price.
- The model's fair line is approximately 54¢, leaving a 19-point probability cushion.
- Union's model win probability is 28.1%, with another 26.0% assigned to the draw.
- Total goals under 3.5+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsTwo Nil, Bench Boss +1Why 3 models like it
Two Nil- Poisson from the 2.74-goal mean gives approximately 70.6% for Under 3.5; Kalshi's ladder implies roughly 3.1 goals.
- Opp-adjusted coverage is only 10 matches per side, below the desk's 12-match top tier; the projected 2.74 versus roughly 3.1 market-implied goals gap is modest.
Bench Boss- This is a LEAN at half stake: the coaching/pace proxy supports a low-to-moderate scoring script, but the price leaves a narrow margin.
- 1 or 2-1 script loses despite the 3.5 cushion; combined expected goals are about 3.04.
Long Haul- the captured sportsbook board has no 3.5 total; this is a ProphetX-only, half-size off-thesis ticket.
- Most likely loss path is four or more goals; regular-time total has no push at 3.5.
- Total Goals under 2.5+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsRegression Pairs, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Regression Pairs- Opponent-adjusted xGF totals 2.84 and model lambdas total 2.78, below the recent combined scoring output; all 10 matches were competitive.
- Union’s defensive actual-vs-xGA gap is driven partly by a poor keeper-results sample that could persist.
Deep Book- ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-10-10T03:48:10-07:00. Both total sides are quoted.
- Starting XIs are not posted. Features are computed through 2026-09-20; late personnel news is unknown.
- Elversberg first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Model λ: Union Berlin 1.19, Elversberg 1.59; constant-hazard away FTTS probability 53.5%.
- The model features are computed through 2026-09-20; current starting XIs were not posted at the 3:43 AM PT check.
- Total Goals over 2.5+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-XI attacking xG is 3.98 versus 5.40 for the usual-XI baselines, a 1.42 aggregate reduction.
- Union falls from 2.23 to 1.80 and Elversberg from 3.17 to 2.18 in the XI-quality attacking aggregates.
- Elversberg starts Noel Futkeu (1.04 xG/90) and Union starts Tim Skarke (1.63 big chances created/90).
- Elversberg under 2.5 Total Goals+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Union home 1.26 for / 1.35 against; Elversberg away 1.58 for / 1.28 against; both sides have 10 gp_with_xg.
- No confirmed XI is posted: the lineup macro returned zero rows at 3:50 AM PDT, so striker and goalkeeper changes remain unknown.
Show all 10 picks
- Tie 1st Half+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Scaled lambdas are 0.47 home and 0.62 away; Dixon-Coles first-half tie probability is 46.4%.
- Modeled non-tie outcomes remain substantial: Union first-half win 22.0%; Elversberg first-half win 31.7%.
- Elversberg spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- lambda_home 1.19, lambda_away 1.59; away scoring edge supports Elversberg's positive spread.
- Exact -1.5 model probability is not materialized; 23.8% is a from-scratch lambda/Dixon-Coles cross-check.
- SV 07 Elversberg wins 2-0−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is FC Union Berlin; model key 0-2 is the contract “SV 07 Elversberg wins 2-0.”
- Live correct-score subset sums to 71.0%; min_gp_with_xg is 10.
- Starting elevens were not posted at the 3:35 AM PDT check.
- Both Teams To Score NO+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Per-side read: Union Berlin scores ~75% and Elversberg ~81%; joint BTTS-YES is ~60.3%, leaving NO ~39.7%.
- Pinnacle BTTS YES -186 / NO +161 devigs to 37.1% NO; our 39.7% estimate is a modest projection disagreement.
- Symmetric scoring case, not the stronger asymmetric low-attacker versus elite-defense setup; 10 xG matches support both sides.
- Both scoring probabilities are high, so one goal from each side defeats NO; there is no strong asymmetric BTTS-NO mechanism.
Questions
Who won Elversberg vs. FC Union Berlin?
FC Union Berlin won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.