FinalMewa Arena · Mainz
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAYE | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| FSV | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total over 3.5 goals 41¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Confirmed XI: Fischer's Mainz 3-5-2 uses two strikers; Martínez's Leverkusen XI retains an attacking 4-2-3-1.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-1 on this game · +99% return
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen spread −0.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Half Goal PairsWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- confirmed Leverkusen XI attacking xG is 2.58 versus 2.48 usual-XI baseline (+0.11).
- Patrik Schick starts with 0.94 xG/90 and 1.19 goals/90; Ibrahim Maza adds 0.39 xG/90.
- Most likely loss: Bayer fails to win in 90 minutes; a draw also loses this spread.
Half Goal Pairs- Confirmed XI: 11 starters for both Mainz and Leverkusen in the live lineup lookup; directional read agrees with Bayer's ProphetX 90-minute YES at +128.
- Lean one-leg ticket; no parlay tax or cross-game correlation introduced.
- The projection edge is only 1.68 points, so ordinary match variance can overwhelm it.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) over 3.5+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- confirmed-XI attacking xG is 6.13 versus 5.97 for usual-XI baselines (+0.15).
- Mainz starts Eric Martel for Jae-sung Lee and retains Amiri (0.50 xG/90) and Becker (0.48 xG/90).
- The team-sheet lift is modest; +0.15 combined xG may not justify a 3.5-goal threshold.
Deep Book- Board as_of_pt: 2026-10-10 3:47:13 AM PDT. This is a LEAN, not a recommended play: refill is veneered and cross-market flow is mixed.
- The model reports over 2.5, not over 3.5; the exact threshold probability is unverified.
- Match total over 3.5 goals+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI: Fischer's Mainz 3-5-2 uses two strikers; Martínez's Leverkusen XI retains an attacking 4-2-3-1.
- Martínez's fluid back-three/back-four build-up and immediate counter-pressing create transition chances against Mainz's controlled shape.
- The tactical contrast supports a higher-event match than the 41¢ contract implies.
- Four goals are required; a 2-1 or 1-1 tactical stalemate loses outright.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Patrik Schick starts at 0.77 xG/90; Nathan Tella is absent at 0.38 xG/90.
- Away lambda is 2.27 before Tella's share and 1.89 after subtraction.
- Repricing test passed: venue last changed 2026-10-10T12:36:54.05Z; XI feed first observed 2026-10-10 5:41:19 AM PDT.
- Tella's availability row dates to September 20; public lineup release time is not independently timestamped.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG supports the total: Mainz 2.06 for / 1.54 against; Leverkusen 1.99 for / 1.26 against.
- the complete ProphetX board lists only the 3.5 regular-time rung; no BTTS-shaped market or adjacent total rung exists.
- Features were computed through 2026-09-20; current form, tactics, and personnel may have shifted.
- Total goals over 2.5+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Secondary tempo nudge: PPDA 11.91 Mainz / 11.87 Leverkusen with field tilt .576/.587; 21 and 20 rest days mean no short-rest fade.
- Only 10 xG-covered matches per side, so this is a thin early-season sample despite passing coverage.
Show all 8 picks
- Total goals over 3.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no Long Haul decay or draw-shape pillar cleared; rest is 21 days vs 20, travel is unrecorded, surface is grass, and there is no aggregate state.
- sportsbook and other exchanges were context only; this is a half-size off-thesis Long Haul ticket.
- Most likely loss path is three or fewer goals; the 3.5 threshold gives no push.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inputs: Mainz home xG 1.93, Leverkusen away xG 2.27; opponent-adjusted rates 2.06 and 1.26, respectively.
- The current-season Bundesliga sample has only 4 of 37 matches ending in an away win by 2+; team-strength conditioning makes that empirical baseline noisy but it challenges the model.
Questions
Who won Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FSV Mainz 05?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 4-3 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.