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FinalEuropa-Park Stadion · Freiburg im Breisgau
Schalke 04
1–2Final
SC Freiburg
Score by period
Team12T
SCHA101
FRE112

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tie 1st Half 38¢

Why Forty Five likes it: Edge class: PROJECTION.

Forty FiveDown 31% this season · 76 picksLongshots
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How the picks did

Models went 3-8 on this game · −41% return

  1. Match total under 2.5 goals2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsEarly Whistle, Low Tide Line
    Why 2 models like it
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates are Freiburg 1.86 xGF/0.87 xGA and Schalke 1.62/1.19.
    • The model rate pair is 1.64, 1.05, total 2.69; its under-2.5 probability is 49.7%.
    • The model uses only 10 xG matches per side, so rate calibration and opponent adjustment can be wrong.
    Low Tide Line
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.64 home and 1.04 away; sharp Pinnacle reference also leans under.
    • Coherence is clean: model and sharp reference favor under; global Polymarket offers only 1X2, so no cohort mapping is claimed.
    • Combined expected goals are 2.67, so an early goal or open game can break the under.
  2. Total goals under 3.52 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Freiburg 1.84 xGF/0.87 xGA and Schalke 1.61 xGF/1.19 xGA; projected pregame total 2.76.
    • Two goals by 34' indicate hotter-than-baseline tempo; two or more additional goals lose the under.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model total is 2.67 expected goals; Poisson estimate puts 0, 3 goals near 72%.
    • Freiburg allow 0.97 expected goals per home match; Schalke allow 1.22 away.
    • Freiburg and Schalke average 2.05 and 1.95 expected goals for, respectively.
  3. Schalke 04Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Novig

    Team Sheet DrawNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI shows Freiburg without regular goalkeeper Noah Atubolu; Mio Backhaus starts instead.
    • The replacement goalkeeper's true impact is uncertain; the model may already capture some roster change.
  4. Tie 1st Half
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION.
    • Internal coherence check: Schalke's 1H mid was 18.5c, equal to its full-time mid; a 1H away win should be strictly less likely.
    • No starting XI was posted at the 5:51 AM PT lookup; lineup news can change first-half scoring rates.
  5. Draw 0-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orientation: home is SC Freiburg; model key 0-0 is the contract “Draw 0-0”.
    • Top-k: 1-1 0.12, 1-0 0.11, 2-1 0.10, 2-0 0.09, 0-0 0.07, 0-1 0.07.
    • No sharp exact-score reference exists; the live correct-score grid cannot be normalized or de-vigged.
  6. total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: Freiburg home xGF/xGA 1.85/0.87; Schalke away xGF/xGA 1.61/1.19; matchup estimates are 1.52 and 1.24 goals.
    • Only 10 xG-covered matches per side, below the brief's 12-match top tier; the 2.76 projection is therefore a lean, not a table-banger.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Schalke 04 +1 regular-time spread
    0%Push

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI attacking xG is Freiburg 2.77 versus Schalke 2.54, only a 0.23 gap; the profile supports a competitive margin rather than a rout.
    • Schalke start Moussa Sylla (0.60 xG/90) and Adil Aouchiche (0.30 xG/90, 2.83 chances created/90), preserving meaningful counterattacking threat.
    • Most likely loss: Freiburg wins by two or more, overwhelming the +1 protection.
  2. Schalke 04 to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Schalke’s away form is 6-2-2 with a +5 goal difference and 17 points from 10.
    • Model expected goals are relatively close: Freiburg 1.63, Schalke 1.04.
    • The market’s strong Freiburg price leaves meaningful upside if Schalke’s away form transfers.
    • Freiburg’s home record is 7-1-2 with 30 goals scored and 13 conceded.
  3. Both teams to score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Geometric xG pairing gives Freiburg 77.8% and Schalke 71.3% to score; both have 20 xG matches, a symmetric both-can-score setup.
    • Both scoring probabilities are high, so the No side needs one team to blank; the estimated edge is only about 1.6 points at 43¢.
  4. Schalke 04 spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Freiburg 1.64 and Schalke 1.04; low-score distribution cross-check gives Schalke margin ≥2 about 8.9%.
    • Same-season Bundesliga sample: away-side margin ≥2 occurred 5/43 times (11.6%); supportive but noisy.
    • Self-reference is structural: the sharp sportsbook spread quotes Freiburg -1.5, not Schalke +1.5; no independent same-rung price exists, so this is capped at LEAN.

Questions

Who won Schalke 04 vs. SC Freiburg?

SC Freiburg won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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