FinalAllianz Arena · Munich
Borussia Dortmund
2–2Final
FC Bayern München
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BD | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| BM | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 1.5 1H goals scored 47¢
Why Half Light likes it: 20 recent Bundesliga matches produced 22 first-half goals from 65 total: 33.8% share.
Half LightDown 7% this season · 135 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-10 on this game · −51% return
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsEarly Whistle, Two NilWhy 2 models like it
Early Whistle- Bayern opponent-adjusted xGF/xGA: 2.95 / 0.79; Dortmund: 1.72 / 0.88.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3.75 at -109/-103, while Kalshi offers the under side at 45¢.
- Expected, not confirmed, XI; Kane and Guirassy are projected, while Neuer is out and Urbig is expected in goal.
Two Nil- Same-rung Kalshi ladder implies roughly a 4.0-goal mean from its Over 3.5 probability, versus 3.17 in the xG read; no independent sharp same-rung reference exists.
- ppda is aggressive for both sides (Bayern 11.52, Dortmund 11.46), a modest hotter-tempo nudge, but both pressing samples are proxy-based; this remains a PROJECTION claim.
- Only 10 xG-supported matches per side, below the desk's preferred 12-game tier; model-market disagreement is therefore treated cautiously.
- Under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Model lambdas are Bayern 1.88 and Dortmund 0.97, a 2.85-goal total; Poisson under 3.5 is 68.1%.
- Global Under 3.5 maps cleanly to Kalshi NO on 'Over 3.5 goals'; this is cohort confirmation only, not the quoted price.
- The model-versus-Kalshi gap is unusually wide at about 25 points; model miss or stale feature assumptions remain possible despite confirmed lineups.
Deep Book- Most likely loss: four or more regulation-time goals; the model assigns Over 2.5 a 54.2% probability.
- Both teams to score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Dortmund scoring once loses immediately; Bayern’s attacking quality can create a high-variance game state.
Both Nets- Bayern scoring read 82.4%: 2.95 oppadj xGF versus Dortmund's 1.03 away xGA; 10-match xG sample.
- Dortmund scoring read 72.2%: 1.72 oppadj xGF versus Bayern's 0.95 home xGA; this is a symmetric both-sides-can-score case, not the asymmetric BTTS-NO setup.
- The 3.5-point model edge over the 37¢ NO price is modest; match variance can dominate.
- Borussia Dortmund spread +1.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsHandicap, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Handicap- 2026 Bundesliga sample: 19 of 64 home teams won by 2+ (29.7%); draws were 13/64 and one-goal margins 26/64, supporting concentrated 0/1 mass.
- Expected lineups are not official; both teams have notable listed absences and major offseason personnel changes.
Long Haul- lambdas 1.88 home / 0.97 away imply approximately 65.8% for Dortmund +1.5.
- Regular-time +1.5 wins on a Dortmund result, a draw, or a one-goal Bayern win.
- Most likely loss: Bayern wins by 2 or more; the independent-Poisson read assigns roughly 34.2% to that outcome.
- Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI at 09:41 PDT: Fábio Silva did not start; his xG/90 is 0.45. Samuele Inácio (0.49) and Ethan Nwaneri (0.36) also stayed on the bench.
- Away lambda moves from 0.97 to 0.53 after the Fábio Silva adjustment; Poisson under 1.5 is approximately 90.2%.
- Repricing test passed: last actual Kalshi quote transition was 08:47 PDT / 15:47Z, before the 09:41 PDT confirmed XI; no later venue repricing.
- Fábio Silva is benched, not listed injured; his expected-start status is unverified, so the 0.45 subtraction may overstate the shock.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20 recent Bundesliga matches produced 22 first-half goals from 65 total: 33.8% share.
- Full-match ladder mean is 3.81 goals; split-implied first-half mean is 1.29.
- Clipped 1H ladder Poisson fit is 1.78 goals, a 0.49-goal excess versus the measured split.
- The 33.8% split uses only 20 recent Bundesliga matches and has substantial sampling variance.
Show all 9 picks
- Bayern Munich wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is FC Bayern München; model key 1-0 is the contract “Bayern Munich wins 1-0.”
- Top-k rank 2; lambdas are 1.88 home and 0.97 away; xG coverage is 10 matches.
- Expected XIs are unconfirmed; Bayern lists 3 outs and Dortmund 7.
- Match under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals total 2.85; a Poisson translation of that total puts under 3.5 near 68%.
- The warehouse model makes over 2.5 only 54.2%, implying four or more goals are not the central outcome.
- Home expected goals against is 0.95 and Dortmund away expected goals against is 1.03.
- The four listed head-to-head meetings average 3.5 goals, with both teams scoring in all four.
- Borussia Dortmund to win−100%Lost
Taken at 12¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dortmund's away form is 7-2-1 with an 18-10 goal difference across 10 matches.
- Confirmed XI includes Serhou Guirassy, Jobe Bellingham, and Gregor Kobel.
- Model xG favors Bayern 1.88-0.97, and Bayern are 6-4-0 at home with 36-11 goals.
Questions
Who won Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.