FinalVeltins-Arena · Gelsenkirchen
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| SCHA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRB Leipzig −0.5 52¢
Why Standing Order likes it: Pinnacle posts RB Leipzig to win in 90 minutes at -108, matching the side.
Standing OrderDown 2% this season · 104 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-4 on this game · +39% return
- RB Leipzig −0.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts RB Leipzig to win in 90 minutes at -108, matching the side.
- Under 3.5 total goals+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected goals sum is 2.40, with the model at 56.9% under 2.5 before the extra 3-goal cushion.
- Demichelis says Schalke create and concede few chances; Leipzig are expected to face a compact 3-3-2-2 against their 4-5-1.
- Confirmed lineups and both coaches’ tactical comments support a controlled, low-event match rather than an open transition game.
- Leipzig’s high press can turn Schalke’s direct buildup into quick chances and an early multi-goal lead.
- Match total under 2.5 goals+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Moussa Sylla is confirmed out for Schalke; his recent xG rate is 0.59 per 90 over 791 minutes.
- Confirmed XI rows posted at 06:31 PDT; the named absentee clears the 0.35 xG/90 shock threshold.
- Projection: Schalke lambda 0.91 to 0.33; match lambda 2.40 to 1.82 after subtracting Sylla's share.
- The match is live at 25' and 0-0; a goal changes the remaining-goals distribution immediately.
- Both Teams To Score+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Schalke XI at 2026-10-31 06:31 PDT omits Moussa Sylla (0.59 xG/90) and Emil Højlund (0.39 xG/90).
- Repricing test passed: Kalshi last changed 2026-10-31T11:51:00Z; confirmed-news timestamp was 2026-10-31 06:31 PDT.
- Pinnacle currently lists BTTS No at +155; Kalshi NO costs 39¢ with a 2¢ quoted spread.
- Schalke XI attacking quality is 1.51 versus a 1.32 recent norm, a 14% increase; replacements offset part of the absences.
- RB Leipzig wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION. Home is Schalke 04; model key 0-1 maps to contract “RB Leipzig wins 1-0”.
- Expected XIs are unconfirmed; Schalke lists 9 out and Leipzig lists 3 out.
- Total goals under 2.5+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live score is 1-0 at 40'; under 2.5 needs at most one further goal.
- This is a live conditional estimate, not a fresh independent sharp price; Pinnacle's displayed 2.25 line is off-rung and not used as reference.
Show all 13 picks
- Total goals under 3.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pressing proxies are moderate rather than an over-total signal: Schalke PPDA 12.13 / field tilt .491 and Leipzig PPDA 13.64 / field tilt .505.
- The 2.60 projection is an opponent-adjusted estimate, not an independent sharp same-rung reference; Pinnacle's captured total is only the off-line 3.0.
- Schalke 04 +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle same rung is Schalke +0.5 at +105.
- No push: +0.5 wins on a Schalke win or draw and loses only if Leipzig wins.
- RB Leipzig spread −0.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XIs posted 6:31 AM PDT; Schalke omit regular contributors Moussa Sylla (0.48 xG/90, 9 club starts) and Robin Gosens (0.13 xG/90, 8 starts), while Leipzig start Willi Orbán and David Raum.
- The same ProphetX spread rung was still Schalke +0.5 at +106 at 6:40 AM, unchanged from the 6:31 AM lineup timestamp; the target is RB Leipzig -0.5 at -108.
- Coverage clears: both XIs are confirmed; xi_n_known is 8 for Leipzig and 7 for Schalke, with has_xg true for both and 10 prior xG matches.
- Most likely loss is a draw: RB Leipzig -0.5 requires a regular-time win and has no draw protection.
- Both Teams To Score NO+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Schalke scoring read 67.9% (opp-adjusted attack 0.99 vs Leipzig defensive xGA 1.28); Leipzig read 76.9% (1.74 vs Schalke 1.19).
- This is a moderately symmetric scoring setup, not a total-goals proxy; Leipzig is the stronger scoring side, but neither side is rated near-certain to score.
- Both teams' estimated scoring probabilities are fairly high; one early goal by each side loses the NO contract.
- RB Leipzig spread NO 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inputs: Schalke home xG 1.32 for/1.27 against; Leipzig away xG 1.75 for/1.71 against; 10 xG games each.
- Current Bundesliga sample: Leipzig-style away margin of 2+ occurred 6/64 matches; margins of 1 or less occurred 58/64.
- Only 10 xG matches per side; the 64-match competition distribution is broad rather than opponent-matched.
- RB Leipzig @ Schalke 04 under 3.5 total goals+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Number EarnedDown 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model gives 43.1% Over 2.5, consistent with a strong 3.5-goal under.
- Confirmed XIs at 6:31am; Schalke has nine listed absences and Leipzig three.
- Raw expected-goals rates sum to 3.07, materially above the fitted total of 2.40.
- Draw−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles forecast is Schalke 0.91, Leipzig 1.49 expected goals: a relatively compressed scoring environment supports the draw path.
- Schalke's home form is 3-3-4 with 10 goals for and 11 against; Leipzig's away form is 5-0-5, leaving draw equity despite Leipzig's strength.
- The warehouse model is explicitly unvalidated and rests on only 10 xG matches per side.
Questions
Who won RB Leipzig vs. Schalke 04?
RB Leipzig won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.