FinalDeutsche Bank Park · Frankfurt am Main
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAMB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| EF | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonEintracht Frankfurt Spread (Regular Time) −1 53¢
Why ProphetX Touchline likes it: Pillar 1/3 mismatch: Hütter called for dominant, proactive, front-foot football; Frankfurt's 10.55 PPDA and 56.3% field tilt versus HSV's 13.97 and 38.1% support that control.
ProphetX TouchlineDown 4% this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-9 on this game · −40% return
- Hamburger SV spread +1−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsStanding Order, Fair Price PairsWhy 2 models like it
Standing Order- Frankfurt wins by 2 or more and the +1 spread loses; a one-goal Frankfurt win is a push.
Fair Price Pairs- The model uses lambda_home 1.77, lambda_away 1.63, and dc_rho -0.05; a one-goal Frankfurt win is treated as a push, not a win.
- Both XIs remain expected, not confirmed, as of 7:48 AM PT; late absences could move the true spread probability.
- Both Teams To Score+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- estimated home scoring probability 81.9% (λ≈1.71) and away scoring probability 81.2% (λ≈1.67); symmetric both-sides-score profile.
- Both attacks are supported by opponent defenses: Frankfurt oppadj xGF 1.54 vs HSV xGA 1.88; HSV oppadj xGF 1.24 vs Frankfurt xGA 2.11.
- Both projected XIs are expected, not confirmed; Frankfurt's listed absences and HSV personnel changes could alter scoring independence.
Number Earned- Model projects both teams to score 67.2%; fair price is about -205, above the DraftKings offer.
- Frankfurt's home matches average 4.6 goals scored, while Hamburg's away matches average 3.1 total goals allowed and scored combined.
- DraftKings' -195 price leaves only a thin 1.1 percentage-point break-even margin over the model.
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Frankfurt won Tuesday's rematch 3-1; Hütter's aggressive 4-2-2-2 now faces a compactness response.
- Polzin explicitly emphasized increased defensive compactness after HSV's possession approach struggled.
- Hütter says Frankfurt have become steadier and more solid, favoring controlled game-state management after taking a lead.
- HSV also said it must show more courage, which could turn the rematch into another open contest.
- Eintracht Frankfurt Spread (Regular Time) −1+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX TouchlineUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pillar 1/3 mismatch: Hütter called for dominant, proactive, front-foot football; Frankfurt's 10.55 PPDA and 56.3% field tilt versus HSV's 13.97 and 38.1% support that control.
- Hütter specifically emphasized using the ball well and denying easy first-half chances, a direct fit with Frankfurt's stronger territory and HSV's low 38.1% tilt.
- Most likely loss: Polzin adjusts HSV's shape after Tuesday's 1-3 cup defeat and absorbs Frankfurt's front-foot pressure; a one-goal Frankfurt win pushes -1.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20 recent Bundesliga fixtures produced 22/59 first-half goals, a 37.3% share.
- The 20-match sample can regress toward the league baseline.
- Hamburger SV wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi Hamburg 1H mid is 17.5c, above the full-time Hamburg mid of 16.5c.
- no independent sharp first-half price was posted for this rung.
Show all 12 picks
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson translation of 3.10 goals gives approximately 40.2% for 0-2 goals versus Kalshi's 32¢ under price.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, below the desk's 12-game top tier; the projection can be wrong.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Total goals under 4.5+35%Won
Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted scoring/conceding rates blend to a 3.11-goal total: Frankfurt 1.54/1.83, Hamburg 1.24/1.60.
- At that 3.11 rate, four or fewer goals is about 79%; the warehouse model's higher 3.40 rate still gives about 74%.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3.25 goals (-117 over/+104 under), supporting a lower 4.5 threshold.
- The two rate constructions disagree materially: 3.11 opponent-adjusted goals versus 3.40 from the model pair.
- Over 3.5 total goals+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XIs posted 7:50 AM; Over 3.5 was 47.17¢ at 7:46 AM pre-XI and remains +112 now, showing no post-XI repricing.
- Confirmed-XI quality favors attacking output: Frankfurt XI attacking xG 2.18 versus Hamburg 1.82; known-XI rating sums are 76.62 versus 73.87, with 10 and 8 known players.
- Frankfurt starts Younes Ebnoutalib at 0.71 xG/90 and 0.44 big-chances-created/90; Hamburg starts Terem Moffi at 0.47 xG/90 and Grønbæk at 0.66 big-chances-created/90.
- Most likely loss: three or fewer total goals, because Over 3.5 needs four.
- Hamburger SV +1.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Frankfurt 1.77 and Hamburg 1.63; Frankfurt margin ≥2 is about 22.0%.
- The matchup read gives Hamburg +1.5 roughly 78%; I use 76% after uncertainty and sample shrinkage.
- Current Bundesliga sample has home margin ≥2 in 20 of 70 matches (28.6%), consistent with lumpy goal differences.
- League-wide empirical data is not strength-matched and implies only 71.4% protection for Hamburg +1.5.
- Hamburger SV to win−100%Lost
Taken at +450 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model gives Hamburger SV a 35.2% win probability from 1.63 away and 1.77 home expected goals; fair odds about +184.
- Hamburger SV's away form is 4-1-5, while Frankfurt's home form is 4-3-3.
- Three-way soccer variance leaves a 23.5% modeled draw probability, the main route to failure.
Questions
Who won Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-1 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.