FinalWWK Arena · Augsburg
SC Freiburg
2–1Final
FC Augsburg
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| AUG | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 3.5 69¢
Why Two Nil likes it: live Pinnacle is 3.25 goals, under -110; off-rung reference, not used as a 3.5 price.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-5 on this game · +1% return
- SC Freiburg to win+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsFair Price Pairs, Long Haul +2Why 4 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Reference: NO REFERENCE for the same 2-way contract; sportsbook prices are 3-way context only and are not used in this comparison.
- Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed, with the latest projected lineups dated 10/29 and multiple listed absences.
Long Haul- Expected XIs support a team-level projection, but this remains a low-conviction, half-size off-thesis ticket.
- Both lineups are expected, not confirmed; late rotation could materially change the projection.
Deep Book- Board as_of_pt 2026-10-31T04:55:03-07:00. The 2-way contract pushes on a draw.
- Expected XIs are unconfirmed. Augsburg has six listed projected outs and Freiburg two; model features run through 2026-10-28.
Number Earned- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Freiburg 1.62 to 0.91 defensively; Augsburg allows 2.03.
- Freiburg’s away form: 6-1-3 with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded.
- Polymarket US taker fees raise the effective 41¢ cost; the edge remains model-dependent.
- Total goals under 3.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Early WhistleWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- live Pinnacle is 3.25 goals, under -110; off-rung reference, not used as a 3.5 price.
- At 1-0 in the 41st minute, time-scaled remaining expectation is about 1.76 goals, or 2.76 final; Kalshi's ladder implies roughly 3.2.
- Augsburg leading can open the match: Freiburg must chase, while counterattacks can create a three-goal second half.
Early Whistle- Augsburg's opponent-adjusted rates are 1.89 xGF and 2.03 xGA; Freiburg's are 1.62 xGF and 0.91 xGA.
- Blending opposing attack and defensive rates gives estimated lambdas of approximately 1.40 Augsburg and 1.83 Freiburg, or 3.23 total goals.
- The independent model pair is 1.24 Augsburg and 2.37 Freiburg, implying a 3.60 total and roughly 51% under 3.5, material model disagreement.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The +156 over quote is roughly a 3.16-goal Poisson-equivalent market expectation; the model total is about 0.45 goals higher.
- Opponent-adjusted xG supports the gap: Augsburg home 1.89 for / 2.03 against; Freiburg away 1.62 for / 0.91 against.
- 0, 1-0, 1-1, or 2-1-type finish loses; the model still leaves roughly 51.4% on three goals or fewer.
- SC Freiburg wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION. Dixon-Coles 1H estimate gives Freiburg 44.6%.
- Bundesliga measurement: 64 of 161 goals in the first half, a 39.8% share; scaled lambdas are Augsburg 0.49 and Freiburg 0.94.
- Venue coherence supports the direction: Freiburg 1H is 33c versus 41c full-time, while the 1H tie is 38c versus 26c full-time.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; Augsburg has six listed absences and Freiburg has two.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted blend gives Augsburg 75.4% to score and Freiburg 83.9%; combined BTTS-YES read 63.3%, NO 36.7%.
- Directional check: the modest NO lean comes from Freiburg's strong 0.91 opp-adjusted xGA, not from total-goals reasoning.
- Both scoring probabilities remain high; Augsburg's 1.89 opp-adjusted xGF and Freiburg's attack can overcome the defensive brake.
- SC Freiburg spread −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bundesliga sample: 47 of 64 results (73%) landed at absolute margins 0, 1, or 2, supporting a lumpy rather than smooth ladder read.
- Expected, not confirmed, lineups; Freiburg's projected away XI and recent personnel changes could reduce attacking output.
Show all 7 picks
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw model expected goals are 1.24 for Augsburg plus 2.37 for Freiburg.
- Opponent-adjusted attacking xG combines to 3.52 per match: Augsburg 1.89 and Freiburg 1.62.
- Four goals are required; the market loses on exactly three despite the strong 2.5-goal baseline.
Questions
Who won SC Freiburg vs. FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.