FinalStadion An der Alten Försterei · Berlin
FC Köln
1–1Final
FC Union Berlin
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| KÖL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| UB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFC Köln total goals under 2.5 45¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: Union 1.20 home XGF + Köln 1.36 away XGA implies 1.28.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-8 on this game · −56% return
- FC Köln to win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the Day +1Why 3 models like it
Coaches Corner- Union's new high-press, possession-centric back-four project was described as bumpy and expected to take time.
- Wagner's Köln has a compact 5-3-2 option: deeper away defending, wingback width, and counterattacking.
- Union can make a meaningful tactical correction after the 0-5 defeat, especially with home control.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Köln 1.53 away to Union's 1.20 at home.
- Recent form favors Köln: L9 4-3-2, +0.3 margin, versus Union 2-4-3, -1.7.
- Union's home-side venue record is stronger: 13 points from 10 home matches versus Köln's 7 away points.
Number Earned- 44.2% model win probability versus Novig's 37.5¢ takeable price: 6.7 percentage-point edge before any live fee.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Köln 1.53 to 1.20; defensive xG allowed is essentially even at 1.36 versus 1.37.
- Köln is only 4-2-4 away across the 10-match sample, while Union is 3-3-4 at home.
- FC Köln spread −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The -0.5 rung tests the 0-goal boundary: Köln must win; no push or stake-return scenario exists.
- Confirmed lineups still include major absences on both sides; Köln are without Skhiri and Hübers, while Union are without Doekhi, Khedira, Rønnow and Querfeld.
- FC Köln over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Halftime SeamDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup xG blend is 3.10 goals from both teams' attack and opponent-allowed rates.
- Three-season Bundesliga final-goal mean is 3.22 across 682 matches; Poisson blend prices over 2.5 near 61%.
- Goal-minute data puts 44.9% of 2,059 logged goals before halftime and 23.2% in minutes 76, 90, supporting full-game accumulation.
- Both lineups remain expected, not confirmed; Köln has six listed absences and Union has a late Robert Skov knock.
- Tie 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 46.5% model probability from 0.39 Bundesliga first-half goal share, scaled lambdas 0.45 and 0.58, and DC rho -0.05.
- Internal coherence: full-time Tie trades at 27, 28c, below the 40c first-half tie midpoint.
- The first-half winner mids are 29.5% / 40.0% / 29.5%, summing to 99.0%; the set passes the screen.
- The 0.39 share uses 210 goals across 58 Bundesliga fixtures with goal events and may regress toward the usual range.
- FC Köln wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bundesliga 2026-27 sample: 70 matches, with 6 away teams winning by exactly 2 and 2 winning by 3+; the 2-goal mass matters more than a smooth ladder.
- Expected XIs are not confirmed and were last observed 10/30; Köln and Union each list multiple absences, including major defensive and midfield changes.
- FC Köln total goals under 2.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Union 1.20 home XGF + Köln 1.36 away XGA implies 1.28.
- Opp-adjusted xG: Köln 1.53 away XGF + Union 1.37 home XGA implies 1.45.
- Expected total 2.73 versus Kalshi Over 2.5 raw yes_ask 0.56, fraction regime; Poisson-equivalent market total about 2.91.
- Only 10 xG-covered matches per side, below the brief's 12-match top tier.
Show all 8 picks
- Total goals under 2.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended opponent-adjusted rates imply λ 1.28 home and 1.45 away; Poisson under 2.5 is about 48.8%.
- Pinnacle's sharp total anchor is 2.75 (-108/-104), providing a non-Kalshi reference for the total.
- The estimated edge is modest: roughly 3.8, 5.1 probability points over the 45¢ price.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 xG matches each: Union's oppadj xGF is 1.20 against Köln's 1.58 xGA, implying Union scores about 74.7%.
- Köln's oppadj xGF is 1.53 against Union's 1.68 xGA, implying Köln scores about 79.9%.
- Separate scoring reads combine to roughly 59.7% BTTS-YES, or 40.3% NO; Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.62 is fraction-regime data, while NO costs 39¢ from the 0.61 yes_bid.
- The 40.3% personal NO estimate is only about 1.3 percentage points above the 39¢ entry; variance dominates.
Questions
Who won FC Köln vs. FC Union Berlin?
FC Union Berlin won 1-1 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.