FinalBayArena · Leverkusen
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| VFB | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| BAYE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 3.5 total goals 54¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Combined xG is 4.58: Leverkusen 2.56 and Stuttgart 2.02 per match.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-5 on this game · +59% return
- VfB Stuttgart spread +0.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsHalf Goal Pairs, Long Haul +1Why 3 models like it
Half Goal Pairs- Confirmed XIs were posted at 6:30am; xG coverage is true with 10 matches and lambdas 2.10 home / 1.45 away, rho -0.05.
- Most likely loss: Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins by any margin; +0.5 offers no protection against a home win.
Long Haul- No qualifying travel, rest, surface, aggregate, or draw-shape pillar was verified; this is the one allowed off-thesis leg and is capped at LEAN.
- Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; Stuttgart has six listed out and Leverkusen seven, so late changes could move the model.
Deep Book- warehouse model and sharp context disagree with the flow; this is a LEAN, not a recommendation. Board as_of_pt 2026-10-31T04:54:47-07:00.
- Bayer winning in 90 minutes loses the ticket; the home side leads expected goals 2.56 to 1.45.
- VfB Stuttgart +0.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Team Sheet PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- Leverkusen's modeled scoring rates lead Stuttgart, 2.10 to 1.45; a home win by one or more loses this rung.
Team Sheet Pairs- both confirmed XIs were posted at 6:30 AM PDT; the lineup gate and 10-fixture XI-quality coverage clear for both teams.
- VfB Stuttgart start Ermedin Demirovic (0.73 xG/90) and Deniz Undav (0.42 xG/90); Leverkusen's current list includes missing Martin Terrier (0.31 xG/90, 6 starts in 10).
- Most likely loss is a Bayer Leverkusen regular-time win; +0.5 does not protect against a home victory.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsEarly Whistle, Two NilWhy 2 models like it
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted rates are 1.76 home and 1.48 away, totaling 3.24; Poisson under 3.5 is about 59%.
- The model's own rate pair is 2.10 and 1.45; its higher 3.55 total still puts under 3.5 near 53%.
- The model-rate cross-check is only about 53% under, so the edge is sensitive to how the two rate estimates are blended.
Two Nil- Opp-adjusted xG gives Leverkusen 1.76 and Stuttgart 1.48 expected goals: 3.24 total.
- Both teams have active profiles: PPDA is 13.15 for Leverkusen and 11.89 for Stuttgart, with field tilt 0.58 and 0.61; the pressing/territory nudge works against the under.
- Over 3.5 total goals+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined xG is 4.58: Leverkusen 2.56 and Stuttgart 2.02 per match.
- Carles Martínez's 4-2-3-1 uses a deep buildup and double pivot to break the first press.
- Hoeneß's Stuttgart emphasizes high counter-pressing and narrowed wingers, creating transition volatility.
- Four goals are required; a 2-1 or 2-0 result loses despite attacking intent.
- Total goals under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG blend: Leverkusen 1.76 expected goals, Stuttgart 1.48; pre-match total 3.24.
- With 3 goals at 40', a simple xG-rate remainder projects about 4.8 final goals versus a Kalshi ladder centered above 5.5.
- Independent sharp reference: Pinnacle live total 5.75 (-109/-105); this is a different rung, so it is context rather than a direct same-line comparison.
- Two or more additional goals lose; three goals by 40' indicate unusually high realized tempo.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen under 0.5 team goals−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket
Early WhistleDown 83% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.7 goals scored per 10; Stuttgart concedes 1.0 per 10, blending to roughly 1.85 expected home goals.
- That blend implies about 16% for no Leverkusen goal; the xG model is more conservative at 12% via λ_home 2.10.
- Model first-score split is approximately Leverkusen 58%, Stuttgart 40%, no goal 3%; Polymarket prices Leverkusen over 0.5 at 91¢.
- The expected XI was observed October 26, not confirmed; Schick and Tella could still start and restore finishing quality.
Show all 10 picks
- VfB Stuttgart regular-time spread +0.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- major-book pricing also made Leverkusen the favorite, but this claim is priced and filed only on the exact ProphetX contract.
- Most likely loss: Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins by two or more goals; a one-goal win, draw, or Stuttgart win covers.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days - VfB Stuttgart spread +1.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Leverkusen lambda 2.10 vs Stuttgart 1.45; opp-adjusted inputs are 2.17/1.05 and 1.92/1.34, with 10 xG matches for each side.
- Dixon-Coles/lambda cross-check puts Leverkusen winning by 2+ near 31%, so Stuttgart +1.5 is near 69% before uncertainty.
- Bundesliga sample: 64 finals had goal differences 0 in 20.3%, +1 in 21.9%, and +2 in 6.3%; the 0/+1 mass supports the underdog rung.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed; both projections include meaningful personnel changes and listed absences.
- VfB Stuttgart to win+376%Won
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stuttgart's opponent-adjusted away xG is 1.92 versus Leverkusen's home 1.05 xGA.
- Leverkusen's home record is 8-1-1 with 27 goals scored and 11 conceded.
Questions
Who won VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart won 4-2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.