FinalRoos Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| EAST | 6 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCal Poly Mustangs to win 37¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-1 on this game · +90% return
- Cal Poly Mustangs to win+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- The qualifying samples are small and may reflect selection bias rather than durable skill.
D1 Winner- Efficiency family: Cal Poly's 83.6 overall and 78.0 offensive grades lead Eastern Washington's 75.4 and 67.1.
- Charted per-play sample favors Cal Poly: -0.02 offensive EPA/play versus -0.14, and 0.44 success rate versus 0.40.
- Eastern Washington has home-field advantage, and the mild 5, 7 mph forecast supplies no situational weather boost to the road side.
- Cal Poly Mustangs spread +4.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsResting Money, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Resting Money- Directional coherence check: backing Cal Poly +4.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference only: orders may be stale, cancelled, or concentrated among a few participants; no independent sharp confirmation was used.
Long Way Home- 2026 current-game data: Cal Poly posted +0.05 offensive EPA/play and 49.3% success; Eastern Washington posted -0.04 and 42.0%.
- Cal Poly's defensive EPA/play was +0.12 versus Eastern Washington's +0.59 in the only current-season game for each team; the matchup projects closer than the favorite's reputation.
- The projection rests on one 2026 game per team; Cal Poly faced San José State and Eastern Washington faced Washington, so opponent quality is not comparable.
- Cal Poly Mustangs spread +3.5+90%Won
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair line: Cal Poly -1; market gives 4.5 points of cushion at +3.5.
- Cal Poly offense: +0.05 EPA/play and 49.3% success rate in its current-season sample.
- Eastern Washington defense allowed +0.50 EPA/play; Cal Poly allowed +0.12 EPA/play.
- One-game efficiency samples are thin and opponent-adjusted strength is uncertain.
- Game total over 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at −152 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade: 72/100 (Grade B), clearing the 70-point bar.
- Last-10 combined total hit rate is 70% over 58.5 (7 of 10).
- Trailing-10 total average is 62.0, a 6.0% projection edge over 58.5.
- Only four current-season games per team; the 10-game sample includes one 2025 game each.
- Game total under 61.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 61.5 wins at 61; under 61 refunds at 61, while both contracts win at 60 or fewer.
- ProphetX under 61.5 is 50.74¢ (-103) versus under 61 at 49.26¢ (+103): only 1.48¢ for the extra winning outcome.
- A whole-number push option can be worth less than historical mass if this matchup's scoring distribution differs materially.
- Cal Poly +3.5 spread+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +3.5 wins on an Eastern Washington 3-point win; Cal Poly +3 only pushes.
- ProphetX +3.5 is +108 versus +3 at +111, only three American points lower.
- A 4+ point Eastern Washington win loses; +3.5 has no push.
Show all 7 picks
- Cal Poly Mustangs +3.5+96%Won
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cal Poly's 2026 PFF overall grade is 83.6 versus Eastern Washington's 75.4.
- Last-two charted games show Cal Poly advantages of 0.20 defensive and 0.11 offensive EPA per play.
- FanDuel -104 requires 51.0% to break even; modeled expected return is approximately +4.9%.
- Charted EPA covers only two 2026 games per side; other recent games lack advanced rows.
Questions
Who won Cal Poly vs. Eastern Washington?
Cal Poly won 31-27 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.